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The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations. With another day of northwest winds, watch for blowing snow and wind affected surface snow. Triggering a wind slab around 1-2′ deep in steep wind loaded terrain is possible. Additionally, there is still a chance of triggering a deep persistent slab. Watch for sluffing on steep protected slopes and signs of surface heating on solar aspects. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
SUMMIT LAKE to LOST LAKE and SEWARD: South of Turnagain Pass will continue to be more impacted by the outflow winds. Natural avalanches were observed yesterday and could occur again today. In addition, in much of the terrain the snowpack is shallower and has poor structure. Triggering a large avalanche that breaks on weak faceted snow is possible. Conservative route finding and decision making are recommended.
A preliminary accident report on the fatal accident that occurred on March 9th is up on the Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center Observation page. Link HERE. Our deepest condolences to all impacted by this sad event.
Heading to Hatcher Pass or Chugach State Park? Be sure to check out the recent avalanche observations. Also follow Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center on Facebook for updates during the week.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
There was a natural avalanche cycle observed in Summit Lake yesterday as strong northwest winds overloaded the weak snowpack. Avalanches were observed in motion from the highway. There was also a skier triggered wind slab avalanche on Raggedtop Mountain in Girdwood. The skier was briefly caught and carried but skied out of the slide. Thanks to the reporting party for their discussion of the decision making of the day and big thanks to all that sent in observations yesterday.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The northwest outflow winds were moving snow yesterday and obvious flagging was observed around the forecast area and south to Seward. The AKRR MP 43 weather station that sits near Bench Peak, above and to the west of Grandview, seems to capture these winds. Steady winds in the 20s with gusts into the 50s were recorded in the late afternoon and overnight. Today the winds are forecast to slowly decrease but may bump back up overnight. Turnagain Pass is often spared by this wind direction but where ever you decide to go, it will be important to pay attention blowing snow and surface conditions. There may also be older wind slabs that formed over the past several days. In general wind slabs you find today could be 1-2′ thick and will most likely be found in Alpine terrain on loaded slopes just off ridges and in cross loaded gully features. Fresh wind slabs that just formed could be tender but older ones may still be reactive and really be best described as a persistent slab due to the Leap day layer of buried surface hoar/small facets. Observers noted this layer in snow pits dug in Girdwood Valley and in Turnagain Pass. On southerly aspects in some locations this buried surface hoar is on melt-freeze crust. This could well be the weak layer/bed surface in the skier triggered Raggedtop avalanche due to the nature of the propagation and the aspect. Buried surface hoar can be tricky in that it may or may not be widespread across terrain. This is still something we are trying to get a gather data on as we move into the spring break week. If you are heading out today pay attention to terrain features that look loaded or pillowed, watch for cracking or collapsing, and terrain with hard snow over a softer layer.
Cornices: Avoid travel on cornices and limit exposure underneath them.
Loose snow avalanches: In areas that were protected from the wind, sluffs are possible in steep terrain.
Sun effect: Even with cold temperatures the sun may impact surface snow on steep solar aspects. Be aware of moist surface snow, small roller balls or loose snow avalanches in wind protected spots, especially below steeper rocky areas.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The snowpack structure for this avalanche problem still exists and an outlier avalanche could be a nasty surprise. There is nagging worry that someone will hit the wrong spot and trigger a very large avalanche that fails on the weak faceted snow from January. This is still lurking 3 to 6 feet deep in the snowpack. The wind slab triggered in Lynx Creek last Thursday was a larger avalanche because it ‘stepped down’ into these old weak layers. As time passes the likelihood of triggering a deep slab is decreasing, i.e. is unlikely. Areas that have a shallower snowpack are more concerning, places like Lynx Creek or Twin Peaks and south through Summit Lake. As always, use good travel protocol and as you choose your route consider the consequences if a deep slab was triggered.
Yesterday: Skies were clear and temperatures were were in the single digits and low teens at upper elevations and teen to 20°Fs at low elevations. Winds were northwesterly 5-15 mph gusting into the 20s at Turnagain Pass. At the AKRR MP 43 weather station that picks up the outflow winds they were northwesterly 15-25 mph with gusts as high as 60 mph. Overnight temperatures ranged from just below zero to low teens. Winds remained gusty from the northwest.
Today: Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the single digits to high teens. Winds will remain northwesterly 5-15 mph with gust into the 20s with higher wind speeds in channeled terrain. They should diminish throughout the day but may increase again overnight. Overnight temperatures look to be around 0°F.
Tomorrow: Clear and sunny skies again with temperatures in the teens and low 20°Fs. Winds will remain northwesterly and are forecast to become light. The trend for the rest of the week as high pressure really settles in is for sunshine and rising temperatures with highs in the 30°Fs by the weekend.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 14 | 0 | 0 | 69 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 15 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 13 | 0 | 0 | 81 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 3 | NW | 9 | 28 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 9 | W | 7 | 21 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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