Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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Avalanche Warning
Issued: January 12, 2021 6:00 amTravel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Avoid being on or beneath all steep slopes. |
We have extended the Backcountry Avalanche Warning issued through the National Weather Service through tomorrow morning. Recent heavy snowfall and continued accumulation today will keep the avalanche danger HIGH in the mountains surrounding Turnagain Pass, Girdwood Valley, Portage Valley, Summit Lake and the Seward/Lost Lake/Snug Harbor zone. It is very likely a human could trigger a very large avalanche, and it is likely that we will see large natural avalanches as well. These avalanches may run far into lower elevation runout zones in the valley bottoms. Travel in and below avalanche terrain is not recommended today.
Roof Avalanches: Several large roof avalanches have occurred since Sunday, and may continue to occur today. Be aware of overhead hazards as you go in and out of buildings, and keep an eye on children and pets.
From the Alaska Department of Transportation: There will be intermittent traffic delays Tuesday, January 12, 2021 on the Seward Highway and Portage Glacier Highway for Avalanche Hazard Reduction work. From mileposts 88 to 85 on the Seward Highway, South of Girdwood. Near mile Post 5 and Bear Valley on the Portage Glacier Highway. Motorists should expect delays of up to 45 minutes between 10:00 AM and 4:00 PM. http://511.alaska.gov/
Forecaster chat #3– Saturday, Jan 16. Join CNFAIC forecasters Andrew Schauer and Wendy Wagner, along with special guest Karl Birkeland from the National Avalanche Center, as we talk about how we put together a forecast, and how we put an advisory to use while we are in the mountains.
Johnson Pass area: There was a report yesterday of a large natural avalanche in the Center Creek drainage near Johnson Pass that ran far into the valley bottom.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
As snow continues to pile up, avalanche conditions remain very dangerous. Since the storm began on Wednesday, we have now received 6-7’ of snow, equal to 8.4” snow water equivalent (SWE) at Turnagain Pass, and up to 7-8’ snow equaling close to 10” SWE near Girdwood. This includes around 1.5-2’ of snow equaling 2” SWE since yesterday morning, and several periods of rain up to around 1600′ in the past few days. For events like this, the avalanche danger is crystal clear. Until the snowpack has some time to adjust this load, very large human-triggered avalanches are very likely, and travel in or below avalanche terrain is not recommended. We have already seen evidence of large natural avalanches occurring during this storm cycle, and we will most likely continue to see large avalanches running far into lower-elevation runout zones until after the storm subsides.
Click here for a link to a video summarizing the conditions in Turnagain Pass.
The snow keeps piling up and signs are starting to get buried at Turnagain Pass. 01.11.2021
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
We have been tracking a layer of faceted snow associated with the 12/1 rain crust, which is now buried around 8’ deep, and exists at elevations up to around 2500’. The heavy load from this storm cycle will increase the chance we could see very large avalanches failing on this layer. This is kind of a side note right now, since the storm slab avalanches mentioned above are so dangerous.
Yesterday: Continued heavy snowfall yesterday brought 15-20” snow equal to 1.5-2” SWE. Ridgetop winds were blowing 20-30 mph out of the east with gusts in the high 40’s. Temperatures hovered in the mid-to upper 20’s F at higher elevations and in the low 30’s F at low elevations. The rain line dropped down to around 500’ during the day, with snow to sea level overnight.
Today: Snow will gradually taper off during the day, with another 6-10” expected by this afternoon. Winds are expected to slow down through the day, with ridgetop speeds of 10-15 mph out of the east, and gusts around 25 mph. Temperatures will be in the low 20’s F at upper elevations, and in the upper 20’s F at low elevations. Clouds are expected to break up slightly through the day, with a chance of some pockets of blue sky poking through this afternoon.
Tomorrow: Light snowfall overnight may produce another 2-4” new snow, with easterly ridgetop winds around 15 mph and gusts to 20 mph. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the high teens F at upper elevations to mid 20’s F at low elevations, with highs in the mid- to upper 20’s F tomorrow. Snow showers may linger through the day, and it looks like our next round of heavy snowfall will be later in the day Thursday.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 31 | 21 | 2.1 | 133 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 31 | 4 | 0.4 | 32 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 31 | 20 | 1.6 | 124 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 21 | ENE | 22 | 46 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 25 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
*Seattle Ridge anemometer is rimed over.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
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Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.