Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE above 1000′. Triggering a large avalanche on a weak layer buried 1-3′ deep is possible. In addition, there is the potential to trigger a small wind slab in wind loaded terrain or a sluff on steep protected slopes. Give cornices a wide berth and limit exposure under glide cracks.
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This Saturday: The Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center and the Hatcher Pass Snow Riders Club are hosting a free avalanche workshop Saturday, Jan 11th at 11 am at the Gold Mint parking lot. Check out our events page for more information!
Yesterday a skier triggered two small wind slabs on slope across the road from Cornbiscuit, towards the southern end of Seattle Ridge. These were both shallow and slid into the adjacent gully. These were reported to have been initiated by the skier’s sluff.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
It has been over a week since the New Year’s Eve storm which was the last significant loading event and it may seem like the avalanche forecast is a bit of a broken record. However, the takeaway should be that you still might find the wrong spot and trigger a large avalanche. Unfortunately this is the nature of persistent slab issues, they linger days and even weeks after a storm. Due to the variability of snowpack depth and overall structure we have a few different weak layers to keep in mind. These persistent weak layers have caused avalanches over the past week and observers have found them to still be reactive in some snowpack tests, including in Lynx Creek on Tuesday. There is a layer of buried surface hoar that formed near the Solstice and we have found buried facets over a melt freeze crust in some pits and sandwiched between wind harden layers of snow in others. Remember these weak layers are in the top 1-3′ of the snowpack with a hard slab on top. Signs of instability may not be present before triggering, it might be the third or tenth person on the slope that triggers the slide and the avalanche could be triggered remotely. Shallow areas and rocks in the snowpack are likely trigger points. Manage terrain with terrain traps and consequences in mind and as always use safe travel techniques.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
There is still quite a bit of loose snow available for transport. An increase in winds yesterday was enough to cause pluming along some high ridgetops. It was also enough to create small tender wind slabs. A skier set off two while descending a slope on the southern end of Seattle Ridge. Keep an eye out for wind texture, cracking, hollow sounding snow, and remember a small wind slab can be dangerous in high consequence terrain.
Loose snow sluffs: On slopes out of the wind the surface snow is becoming looser and looser by the day with the cold temperatures. Sluffs are getting larger because of this and gaining volume in longer sustained slopes. Keep an eye on your sluff.
Glide cracks: Glide cracks are continuing to slowly open around the area. There are several around the Cornbiscuit ridge and in the Gold Pan zone in upper Bertha Creek along with others sprinkled about. Watch for cracks and limit time spent underneath them as they could release into a dangerous glide avalanche at any time.
Cornices: Cornices are looming along ridges. Be sure to give them plenty of space and limit your exposure when passing beneath them.
Yesterday: Skies were mostly clear with some valley fog. Temperatures ranged from negative teens to low single digits. Winds were 5-10 mph and depending on location varied from westerly to northerly, with gusting into the teens. Overnight an inversion set in with higher elevation stations reporting slightly rising temperatures and valley stations reporting dropping temperatures.
Today: Skies will be mostly clear with patchy freezing fog. Temperatures will be in the high single digits to low teens at ridgetops and stay in the negative teens to negative single digits in valley bottoms. Winds are forecast to be easterly 5-10 mph with gusts into the teens. Overnight temperatures drop again with a continued inversion and winds will shift back to the northwest.
Tomorrow: Friday looks to be more of the same with cold temperatures, valley fog and northwest winds and the pattern continues into Saturday. Sunday the forecast shifts to partly cloudy with a bit warmer temperatures.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | -4 | 0 | 0 | 39 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | -15 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | -4 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 2 | W | 5 | 16 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | -1 | N | 2 | 13 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
---|---|---|
Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.