Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

After five days of cold, clear and calm weather, this sixth day should bring some slight changes. A bump in westerly wind is expected along ridgelines, discussed below, and even colder temperatures are being reported this morning in valley bottoms (around -15F) and not expected to rise more than a few degrees.

Despite the slight bump in winds, we do remain in a generally persistent weather pattern. This is keeping our main avalanche concern focused on triggering a large slab avalanche that breaks deeper in the snowpack. If you’ve been following along for the past week, you’ll know there is a layer of buried surface hoar 1-3′ deep which was responsible for three snowmachine triggered slabs in Seattle Creek drainage last Friday and a layer of faceted snow over a crust, which was the culprit in the Magnum avalanche from Sunday. There have been no avalanches reported in the past two days. Remember you can view all the reported avalanches on our avalanche list.

Avalanche science tells us with more time and cold temperatures, the likelihood for triggered these slabs should be decreasing, but we still need to keep this possibility front and center. Things to keep in mind:

• Signs of instability are not likely to be present before a slope releases.
• Thin areas are likely to be the trigger spots. These can be tough to see from the surface but common places are, on top of rollovers, near rocks protruding and areas that have seen wind scouring.
• Tracks on a slope doesn’t mean it’s safe. This is the scenario that the 3rd or 10th person could trigger an avalanche.
• Remote triggering a slab is possible, meaning from the top, sides or below.

As we’ve been saying, good travel habits help stack the odds in our favor. Exposing one person at a time, watching our partners, having escape routes planned and considering the consequences if the slope does slide.

A closer look at the skier triggered avalanche on Sunday 1/5/20 on the west face of Magnum. 

If you are headed out today, keep a close eye on any winds that are impacting your area. West winds are expected to rise to 10-15mph and possibly 20mph in places with gusts to 30mph. With such loose snow on the surface, it won’t take much wind to move the snow around. Any fresh wind slabs found could be easily triggered. Even a small wind slab in high elevation steep terrain can cause problems if it knocks one off their feet.

Loose snow sluffs:  The surface snow is becoming looser and looser by the day with the cold temperatures. Sluffs are getting larger because of this and gaining volume in longer sustained slopes. Keep an eye on your sluff.

Glide cracks:  Glide cracks are continuing to slowly open around the area. There are several around the Cornbiscuit ridge and in the Gold Pan zone in upper Bertha Creek along with others sprinkled about. Watch for cracks and limit time spent underneath them as they could release into a dangerous glide avalanche at any time.

Cornices:  Cornices are looming along ridges. Be sure to give them plenty of space and limit your exposure when passing beneath them.