Sun, April 07, 2019 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sun, April 7th, 2019

Alpine

Above 2,500'

2 - Moderate

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

2 - Moderate

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

2 - Moderate

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Wind Slabs
Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches

Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

Yesterday’s storm was mostly blow and not much snow… Rain/snow showers across the region deposited a few inches of new snow (3-6″/0.2-0.6 SWE) above approximately 2000′ favoring Girdwood over Turnagain Pass. Portage was the exception with the Bear Valley RWIS weather station recording 1.8″ of SWE in the past 24 hrs. In the afternoon easterly winds ramped up blowing 15-25 mph with gusts into the 40s. The new snow fell onto a variety of surfaces, including firm crusts on W-S-E facing aspects in the Alpine and surface hoar and near surface facets on shaded northern aspects. Today steep leeward terrain features in the Alpine will be the most suspect for triggering a shallow wind slab. Watch for cracking and look for pillowed snow along ridgelines. Be cautious of fresh drifts.

WET LOOSE: Keep in mind its springtime and be ready for small wet loose activity on solar aspects in the Alpine if the sun comes out. In the lower elevations below 2000’ where a stout crust has formed pay attention to supportability. If this crust starts to deteriorate and becomes punchy, triggering a wet loose avalanche in steep terrain will be possible.

CORNICES: Cornices remain very large along some ridgelines in the Alpine. Give them a wide berth and avoid travel directly below them.

South of Turnagain in Summit Lake and areas in the interior Kenai Peninsula have a variety of old weak layers within the snowpack. Triggering a persistent slab 2-3’ deep is becoming an outlier at this time, but the poor snowpack structure is worth noting if headed to Summit Lake. A stout crust has formed on all elevations below 3000’ and on solar aspects in the Alpine. Be aware of a variety of avalanche conditions ranging from small isolated wind slabs to wet loose.

Note the bump in the winds yesterday afternoon, 4-6-19

What’s up with the crust today? Is the new snow bonding to the crust at upper elevations? Did the rain make the crust punchy down low?

Avalanche Problem 2

Glide Avalanches
Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Glide Avalanches

Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Size of Avalanches

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

Glide cracks have been opening and releasing across our region over the last two weeks. This is the entire snowpack gliding downhill and spontaneously releasing. So far all of this activity has occurred on East, South, and West facing slopes below 3000’. This past week Turnagain Pass has been the most active. Glide avalanches are not associated with a human trigger and release without warning. The best way to manage this problem is avoidance. Identify existing cracks and plan your route to avoid being under a glide. Many cracks are opening in popular terrain and may require an unusual route to avoid their runout. This is a case of ‘don’t be caught in the wrong place at the wrong time’.

Glide on the SW face of Magnum, 4-3-19

Weather

Sun, April 7th, 2019

Yesterday: Skies were mostly cloudy with a few patches of sun. There were rain/snow showers on and off throughout the day with 3-6″ of snow falling at upper elevations. Rain/snowline was around 2000′. Temperatures were in the 20Fs to high 30Fs depending on elevation. Winds were easterly 10-20 mph with gusts into the 40s. Overnight skies were cloudy and easterly wind speeds decreased to 5-10 mph gusting into the teens. Temperatures were in the high 20Fs to high 30Fs.

Today: Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. There is a slight chance of rain/snow showers with rain/snowline around 2500′. Temperatures will be in the 40Fs near sea level and range from the high 30Fs to high 20Fs in the upper elevations. Winds will be easterly 5-15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Areas closer to the Arm may see gusts into the 40s again in the afternoon/evening.

Tomorrow: Continued unsettled weather with rain/snow showers, warm temperatures and the potential for gusty winds. This pattern looks to continue through the week as a series of low-pressure systems move into the Gulf and impact the advisory area.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	36	0	0.2	64
Summit Lake (1400′)	38	0	0	20
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	35	1	0.45	58

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	26	NE	16	48
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	31	E	8	25

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
04/16/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Krueger / Matthys Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	John Sykes Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Highway – Tern Lake to Portage	Joel Curtis
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	T. Olsen-Lund, R. Sullivan I. Adams
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Snomo	K. Gallaher
04/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Spokane Creek	Everet Megli
04/11/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Schauer/ Keeler Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit South Face	Todd Kelsey
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	N. Dumont J. Carlberg

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