Tue, December 25, 2018 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Tue, December 25th, 2018

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Moderate (2)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Moderate (2)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Low (1)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Moderate (2)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Moderate (2)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Low (1)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Cornice
Almost Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Cornice

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches

Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

Yesterday we received a report of another cornice fall in Warm-up Bowl possibly triggered by someone walking on the ridge. Sunday night we received multiple reports of cornice falls being triggered that day. Remember to give cornices a wide berth on the ridge as they can break off further back than expected and potentially take you for a nasty ride. They could also trigger a wind slab or larger avalanche below, creating an even bigger problem. It is also important to limit exposure time below them especially with so many people out enjoying the snow this holiday week. There is snow in the forecast today and increasing winds. This will decrease visibility and make it harder to determine where you are in relation to the cornices.

If snow amounts are higher than forecast watch for storm slabs forming today. There is weak snow on the surface and the new snow may not bond well to the old.

WIND SLABS: Winds are forecast to increase today. Any new snow falling may easily get blown into start zones and begin to form tender wind slabs. In addition, Saturday’s sustained NE winds that were strong enough to move snow around and form cornices also potentially created wind slabs on steep, unsupported slopes. Yesterday there were reports cornice falls triggering small pockets of wind slab. Continue to be on the lookout for these today. At this point the older wind slabs may be quite stubborn and could allow a person well out onto them before releasing. Watch for shooting cracks, hollow sounding snow and be especially aware of the terrain – if a wind slab or cornice does release where will you go?

Dog triggered cornice fall on December 23rd. Photo: Andy Moderow 12-24-18

Magnum ridge cornice, 12-24-18. Photo: Andy Moderow.

Avalanche Problem 2

Persistent Slabs
Almost Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Size of Avalanches

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

Buried weak layers roughly 2′ below the snow surface have been found in areas south of Turnagain Pass in both the Summit Lake zone and as far south as Lost Lake. We suspect the snowpack may be similar around Johnson Pass, Lynx drainage and Twin Peaks/Silver Tip. These weak layers are composed of facets associated with crusts and have been showing signs they could be reactive enough a person could trigger a large avalanche. If you are headed to areas south of Turnagain, keep in mind triggering a large slab avalanche is possible. Listen and feel for whumpfing (collapsing of the snowpack) and look for avalanche activity from the storm that may have steeped down into the deeper layers.

Additional Concern

Glide Avalanches

Glide Avalanches

Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

More info at Avalanche.org

Yesterday two recent glide avalanches were observed in the Lynx Creek drainage along with multiple opening cracks. Observers reported the glide cracks on Sunburst and in Warm-up (-1) Bowl are opening and continue to see new glide cracks throughout the advisory area. It is important to remember glide avalanches can release at any time and are not associated with human triggers. Limit travel underneath. It’s a case of not wanting to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Recent glide avalanches in Lynx Creek,12-24-18. Photo: Andy Moderow

Cornice fall and glide gracks on Sunburst, 12-24-18. Photo: Andy Moderow

Weather

Tue, December 25th, 2018

Yesterday: Skies were mostly clear with some valley fog. Temperatures were in the teens and 20Fs with some valley bottoms hitting single digits. Winds were light. Clouds moved in overnight and temperatures are slowly rising.

Today: Mostly cloudy skies with snow showers throughout the day, 1-7″ is forecast. Winds will be easterly 15-30 mph gusting into the 40s. Temperatures will be in the 20Fs to low 30Fs. Snow showers and gusty winds continue overnight.

Tomorrow: There is a chance of snow throughout the day with mostly cloudy skies, calm winds and temperatures in the 20Fs to low 30Fs. The overall weather pattern is forecast to be active at the end of the week into the weekend. Fingers crossed for a snowy 2019! #snowtosealevel

*Seattle Ridge weather station was heavily rimed and the anemometer (wind sensor) was destroyed.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	24	0	0	58
Summit Lake (1400′)	12	0	0	12
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	25	0	0	32

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	20	NE	7	28
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	23	*N/A	*N/A	*N/A

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Nick D'Alessio
05/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit	Heather Thamm
05/07/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks	CNFAIC Staff
05/05/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	AS/ WW Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass	Joel Curtis
04/30/23	Turnagain	Observation: Magnum	Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton
04/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral	Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Andy Moderow

Riding Areas

Updated Thu, June 01st, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Closed	Closed May 15.
Placer River	Closed	Closed May 15.
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Will close to motorized use on April 1, 2023 per the National Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass	Closed	Will close on June 1.
Twentymile	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Lost Lake Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Primrose Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Closed	Extended opening until May 15.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Summit Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.