Turnagain Pass

Today’s weather is forecast to be a little bit of everything. It looks to start out sunny and then transition to rain and snow showers with increasing East winds. Crusts that formed overnight may or may not soften in the sunshine by late afternoon. If the snow does become soft (and especially if it starts to rain after) the potential for wet loose activity at lower elevations will increase. Observations over the weekend found the weakest wet snow conditions below 2500’ on very steep East to South aspects. There is more potential for wet snow to entrain a larger avalanche in this elevation band if they warm up enough. Don’t let this catch you off guard if you start out in the upper elevations and the snow quickly changes as you descend. Pay attention to surface crusts as they break down and become moist. When the snow becomes wet and ‘mushy’ and your skis or snowmachine track start trenching into wet snow, it’s time to find supportable surfaces. Even a small wet avalanche could be hard to manage especially in a terrain trap. 

Cornices: Daily warming and sunnier weather can make cornices more unstable. As always, give cornices plenty of space and limit exposure underneath them.

Recent cornice triggered slab avalanche above Skookum and old wet loose avalanches. 

Triggering a persistent slab 1-2’ deep is becoming less likely with time. Old weak snow (facets) buried within the top 2’ of the snowpack has been found in the upper elevations over the last few weeks. Northerly aspects above 3000’ with dry snow may harbor this set up. So far there have been no reports of any avalanche activity on these shaded slopes following last week’s storm. However, the periphery of our forecast zone is more suspect, Crow Pass area and Johnson Pass to Summit Lake, where a thinner (weaker) snowpack remains. Before committing to steeper slopes in the upper elevations, take a moment to evaluate the terrain for consequences should a slab release.