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Sunshine, warm temperatures, fresh snow and rain saturated snow will keep the danger at CONSIDERABLE today. Human triggered wet snow avalanches and storm slabs are likely and naturals are possible, especially this afternoon. In the Alpine triggering a persistent slab avalanche 1-2′ thick remains possible on Northerly aspects where drier snow exists. Give cornices a wide berth.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Yesterday as the sun poked out late in the afternoon a wet loose avalanche on Raggedtop mountain in Girdwood triggered a wet slab. Observers also noted new wet loose snow avalanches around the region. Rain/snow line was approximately 2700′. Conditions below that were described as “slop” in the saturated surface snow and above that new snow easily formed roller balls. A few skiers remarked on the “parade of pinwheels” initiating from their turns. There was clearing last night and a crust formed on the surface of the snowpack. This will slow snowpack warming down in the morning. However, the temperatures are forecast to rapidly rise and it is supposed to be clear and sunny with calm winds. Expect human triggered wet loose avalanches to become likely on solar aspects and watch for naturals later in the day. The wet loose avalanches may trigger wet slabs. If you do decide to recreate today pay attention to the depth you are sinking in and get off the slope if the snow is over your boot tops or your machine is trenching in. Watch for roller balls. Expect loose snow moving to entrain more as moves downhill. Any fresh snow in the Alpine may be especially reactive on solar aspects. If the clouds move in early and trap the heat, fresh snow on shaded aspects may also become more reactive. Wet loose and wet slab avalanches today could be large and dangerous.
Wet slab avalanche on Raggedtop triggered by loose snow off of the rocks.
Wet loose avalanches on Raggedtop initiated when the sun came out.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Storm slabs: The precipitation over the past few days in the Alpine has fallen as snow. This rain/snowline has fluctuated so pay attention to changing conditions. Locations closer to the coast may have received up to a foot above 3000′. This storm slab may be especially reactive as temperatures rise today and on solar aspects as the sun hits. The winds have been strong as well and this may have created deeper slabs on leeward aspects. Look for wind drifts or pillowed snow, watch for cracking and remember conditions could change rapidly as the sun warms the snow.
Cornices: This new snow and wind will have also added to already large cornices. It’s that time of year where the snowpack is warming up and cornices will begin to break. Give cornices a wide berth.
In the Alpine on Northerly shaded aspects above the rain/snow line triggering a slab avalanche 1-2′ thick on weak faceted snow is still possible. The old slab/facet combo remains suspect and may be more tender with the additional snow and wind loading.
Yesterday was mostly cloudy with rain and snow showers on and off throughout the day. Skies became broken in the late afternoon and eventually cleared overnight. Temperatures were in the high 20Fs to mid 40Fs depending on elevation. The rain/snow line was around 2700′. Winds were easterly 15-25 mph with gusts into the 50s. Overnight temperatures dropped into the mid to low 30Fs and winds became light.
Today is forecast to be mostly sunny and could be the warmest day of the season so far with highs getting close to 50F. Winds will be light and easterly. Tonight will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures dropping into the low 30Fs. Winds will become calm.
Tomorrow is forecast to be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures in the high 40Fs again. Temperatures may drop below freezing overnight Friday and skies are forecast to clear for the weekend. There is a chance of rain/snow early next week as another low tracks into the Northern Gulf.
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
Center Ridge (1880′) | 36 | 0 | 0.2 | 71 |
Summit Lake (1400′) |
38 |
0 | 0.1 | 26 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 36 | 0 | 0.4 | 68 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
Sunburst (3812′) | 27 | ENE | 19 | 59 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 32 | ESE | 20 | 52 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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