Turnagain Pass
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Above freezing temperatures and rain showers will keep the danger at CONSIDERABLE today. Human triggered wet snow avalanches are likely and naturals are possible. In the Alpine triggering a slab avalanche 1-2′ thick remains possible on Northerly aspects where drier snow exists. Give cornices a wide berth.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Yesterday saw heavier rain in the early morning then rain showers on and off throughout the day. Portage picked up over an inch of rain. Temperatures were above freezing to around 3500′. Observers reported snow becoming progressively more saturated especially below 2000′. Skies cleared briefly last night and there was a superficial freeze. However, today a bit more rain is in the forecast, we may see some afternoon clearing with direct sun and the temperatures remain warm. All these factors are continuing to make triggering a wet loose avalanche likely and naturals remain possible. There were a number of natural wet loose avalanches observed yesterday with the largest occurring on the west face of Pyramid mid morning. The snowpack could continue to get more saturated throughout the day. If you do decide to recreate today pay attention to the depth you are sinking in and get off the slope if the snow is over your boot tops or your machine is trenching in. Watch for roller balls. Expect loose snow moving to entrain more as moves downhill. Any fresh snow in the Alpine may be especially reactive on solar aspects if the sun comes out today.
Wet slab avalanches: We have not seen any wet slab avalanche activity yet, but it’s not out of the question that a wet loose slide (or the weight of a skier or snowachiner) could trigger a wet slab today as water penetrates to lower layers.
Natural wet loose avalanche on Pyramid
Wet loose avalanches on Magnum
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Above the rain line triggering a slab avalanche 1-2′ thick on Northerly shaded aspects is still possible. Overall we have seen that the snow from last week has been bonding but haven’t forgotten that there is a weak layer under the old storm slab. The slab/facet combo remains suspect and may be more tender in the Alpine with the additional few inches of heavy snow from yesterday. Wind loading may also add stress, as the ridgetop winds remained strong yesterday and continue today.
It’s that time of year where the snowpack is warming up and cornices will begin to break. Give cornices a wide berth.
Yesterday was partly to mostly cloudy with heavier rain falling in the early morning and localized rain showers on and off throughout the day. Over an inch of rain fell in Portage Valley. Temperatures were in the 30Fs to 40Fs. Winds were Easterly 15-25 mph with gusts into the 40s. Overnight there was brief period of clearing. Temperatures remained above freezing to around 3500′. Sunburst (3812′) hit 32F this morning at 5 am. Easterly winds decreased overnight and are picking up again this morning.
Today is forecast to be mostly to partly cloudy with rain showers. Winds will be easterly 15-25 mph with gusts into the 40s. Temperatures will be in the 30Fs and 40Fs. Tonight temperatures will cool down a bit as colder air moves into the region.
The weather for the next couple of day looks to be a mix of sun and clouds, rain and snow showers and variable temperatures. If the cooler air lines up with some clearer skies at night we could get more of a freeze. Sunshine is in the forecast for the weekend.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
Center Ridge (1880′) | 38 | 0 | 0.2 | 73 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 36 | 0 | 0.1 | 28 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 37 | 0 | 0.1 | 69 |
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
Sunburst (3812′) | 28 | ENE | 20 | 45 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 33 | ESE | 13 | 27 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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