Turnagain Pass
|
![]() ![]() |
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE for the travel advice portion of the danger scale. Triggering a slab avalanche 1-3′ thick at elevations 2,000′ and higher is possible and may still be likely in places. Additionally, triggering a larger slab breaking near the ground remains possible at elevations above 3,000′. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential in the Alpine. Sticking to low consequence terrain 30 degrees and less, and out of runout zones, is recommended above 2,000′ to simply avoid these issues. The danger is MODERATE between 2,000-2,500′ and a LOW danger exists below 2,000′.
Turnagain Pass is open to motorized use. A Special Avalanche Bulletin has been issued this weekend due to an unstable snowpack in an area with little information combined with anticipated crowds. The Chugach National Forest wants to remind riders to avoid areas with thin snow cover like €œRookie Hill € and the Southern end of Turnagain Pass towards Bertha Creek. Johnson Pass remains closed due to lack of snow.
*Coming up January 13th is a FREE avalanche rescue clinic at Hatcher Pass. Practice with your gear on your way to the backcountry – clinic runs from 11am – 1:30pm.
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Several days of generally quiet weather is allowing the snowpack to slowly adjust and theoretically avalanches are becoming less likely to trigger. There was a spike in Easterly winds on Friday afternoon that loaded certain slopes, but other than this no load has been added since Wednesday. Time is on our side, but with that said, we have several weak layers in the snowpack. The pack is getting to the point it may not show any signs of instability until an avalanche is triggered. Many folks may ride/ski a slope before someone hits just the wrong spot. It’s a tricky situation.
Points to keep in mind if you are headed out today and the visibility opens enough for travel above treeline:
1- Slab avalanches 1-3′ thick will be possible to trigger, and may even remain likely to trigger on certain slopes
2- The snowpack is likely to ‘feel’ stable and not show its cards till it’s too late (several tracks may be on a slope before it releases)
3- Safe travel protocol is key to stacking the odds in your group’s favor if choosing to ride upper elevation avalanche terrain (i.e., exposing one person at a time)
4- Avalanches triggered can be large and unsurvivable
Over the past week we have been concerned about a layer of buried surface hoar that sits 1-3′ deep (buried by the New Year’s storm). This layer remains reactive in pits between 2,000-3,200′, yet it remains untested at the higher elevations. We are also concerned about a layer of faceted snow that sits near the ground on slopes that avalanched in early December. Both these issues are in the top three feet of the snowpack and are responsible for these ‘persistent slab’ avalanche problems. Quick note of thanks to the many folks writing in to help us assess the layers!
Plumes on the Twin Peaks near Silvertip, created by Easterly winds on Friday afternoon.
Snowpack just above treeline on Tincan – buried surface hoar main concern for human triggered avalanches
Many tracks on a slope – snow is complex, we know there are weak layers lurking, don’t assume the slope next door will allow that many tracks.
Seattle Ridge, just open to motorized use – very little information for this zone, please let us know what you see if you head this way!
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
In the Alpine, above 3,000’, human triggered large and dangerous deep slab avalanches are still possible. Weak sugary snow (basal facets) near the ground is creating a low probability/high consequence avalanche problem that is impossible to outsmart. This will take a long time to heal. A big trigger like a snowmachine or a slab avalanche in the upper layers of the snowpack may be enough force to initiate a deep slab avalanche. Likely trigger spots will be in thinner areas of the snowpack that are connected to large, loaded slopes. Cautious route-finding is essential. This includes thinking about the remote trigger potential from below.
Changes coming to this advisory page tomorrow! Please see this short document and video about the changes and reasons for them.
–
Mostly cloudy skies were over the region yesterday with light precipitation falling early in the day. Around an inch of new snow was seen in most places with period of light rain at sea level. Temperatures were in the mid 20’sF along ridgetops and 32F at 1,000′. Ridgetop winds were light from the East in the 5-10mph range.
Today, expect mostly cloudy skies with possible breaks in cloud cover. Scattered snow flurries could fall in places higher than 700′ with light rain below. Winds will be light and variable. Temperatures should reach 30-32F at 1,000′ and remain in the mid 20’s at ridgetops.
Monday and Tuesday look to be a true break in weather with mostly sunny skies. Wednesday is a chance for more flurries, but little accumulation expected. The next ‘real’ chance for snow may come this weekend.
*Seattle Ridge anemometer is rimed and not reporting.
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
Center Ridge (1880′) | 31 | 0 | 0 | 43 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 26 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 30 | 1 | 0.06 | 38 |
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
Sunburst (3812′) | 23 | NE | 7 | 27 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 26 | *n/a | *n/a | *n/a |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
The riding areas page has moved. Please click here & update your bookmarks.
Subscribe to Turnagain Pass
Avalanche Forecast by Email