Turnagain Pass
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There is a MODERATE avalanche danger today in the alpine, above 3,000′ where triggering a large and dangerous deep slab avalanche is possible due to weak snow near the ground. Triggering an isolated hard wind slab is still possible on steep leeward features or on unsupported terrain in the alpine. Heightened avalanche conditions exist on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
The avalanche danger is LOW at Treeline. LOW danger does not mean NO danger. Pockets of unstable snow are not out of the question if you find yourself in very steep terrain, below 2500′. There is no hazard rating below 1,000′ due to a lack of snow.
*Please remember your safe travel practices! This includes, exposing one person at a time in avalanche terrain, watching your partners, being rescue ready and having an escape route planned.
**Click HERE for several new observations from Summit Lake.
If you are headed to Hatcher Pass be aware of recent avalanche activity and check out some recent observations HERE.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
It has been over a week since a large avalanche was triggered on Pastoral by two skiers traveling below the NW face. If you have been reading the forecast regularly we are not trying sound like a broken record but the message is the same. This snow pack set-up continues to warrant elevated caution and respect. It is a high consequence avalanche problem that is impossible to outsmart and can take a long time to heal. The ingredients for a deep slab avalanche have been found in the upper elevations of our forecast zone, above 3000’ on slopes that did not avalanche in the early December storm cycle. This is a hard slab, 3-5+ feet thick, sitting on top of weak sugary snow (basal facets) near the ground. Observations over the last few weeks indicate this poor structure is widespread across our region in the alpine elevations.
When dealing with a deep slab avalanche problem, keep in mind:
Weak faceted snow near the ground continues to be reactive and signal propagation potential in test pits in the alpine. Check out a video HERE and observation from Magnum on 12/27/17 HERE.
Over the last two weeks we have been trying to inventory terrain that has or has not avalanched like this observation sent yesterday from Seattle Creek. Photo taken and annotated by Peter Wadsworth. Check out his observation HERE.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Cold temperatures and stable weather this week have been making the snow more brittle and faceting out surfaces. With that said triggering an old wind slab is still possible on very steep terrain in the alpine zone. Places you might find a hard wind slab will be in steep couloirs, large unsupported terrain features, or in thin rocky areas. Triggering a wind slab in the Treeline zone is becoming less likely, but is not out of the question in high consequence terrain. This also goes for a few inches of fast moving loose surface snow “sluff” that could catch you by surprise if you’re not expecting it. Triggering a wind slab could take you for an undesirable ride, and has the potential for initiating a much larger and more dangerous avalanche above 3000′. Be suspect of any slopes that may harbor a deep slab problem in the upper elevations as described above.
Thin wind slab crowns from a wind event that ended Dec.24 were seen on North and West aspects in Seattle Creek yesterday, as well loose surface snow. Photo by Peter Wadsworth.
Yesterday skies were mostly clear and temperatures along ridgetops averaged in the teens (F) with pockets of colder air at valley bottoms. Valley fog was present along Turnagain Arm. Winds were light and variable and no precipitation was recorded. Overnight thin cloud cover has moved into the region
Today skies are expected to be overcast with light Easterly winds. Temperatures should remain in the mid teens (F) to low 20F’s along ridgetops. Snow flurries are possible, but only a trace of snow is expected.
A big pattern change is on tap for this weekend. Snow should start falling on Saturday with the intensity picking up late Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Several feet of snow is possible for the Kenai Mountains. Strong Easterly winds are expected as well as rapidly rising temperatures which could change snow to rain at lower to mid elevations as the storm progresses.
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
Center Ridge (1880′) | 20 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 17 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
Sunburst (3812′) | 13 | W | 2 | 11 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 17 | variable | 3 | 14 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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