Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

If this is your first day reading the advisory this winter it is important to know that deep slab avalanches have been a concern in the advisory now for two weeks. If you have been following along all season we are not trying sound like a broken record but the message is the same. This snow pack set-up continues to warrant elevated caution and respect. It is a high consequence avalanche problem that is impossible to outsmart. The ingredients for a deep slab avalanches have been found in the upper elevations of our forecast zone, above 3000’ on slopes that did not avalanche in the early December storm cycle. There is a hard slab, 3-5+ feet thick sitting on top of weak sugary snow (basal facets) near the ground. Observations over the last few weeks indicate this poor structure is widespread across our region in the alpine elevations.

When dealing with a deep slab avalanche problem, keep in mind:

• Large snow covered slopes that do not have piles of old debris under them are all suspect 
• Thinner areas of the snowpack (1-2’ thick) are likely trigger spots as well as scoured areas near rocks   
• It is possible to trigger this avalanche from below and it could run further than expected 
• Due to strong winds over the last month the snow depths are highly variable and there may be more trigger spots than we realize
• Thicker areas (3-5+’ thick) will be difficult to trigger and several tracks may be on a slope before someone finds a trigger point

An avalanche on the NW face of Pastoral was triggered one week ago by a party of two skies traveling on the low angle terrain below. They were very lucky and were able to get out of the way of the debris. This avalanche also triggered a second avalanche on an adjacent slope over 1000 feet away. Deep slabs can linger for long periods of time and warrants extra caution in places that have not avalanched. 

 A view of the North facing terrain of Corn Biscuit taken yesterday from Magnum. Some old debris can be seen on looker right side, lower North Chutes, but much of the upper elevation terrain of Corn Biscuit and Super Bowl are still intact and didn’t have evidence of much avalanche activity from mid December. 

As we move further away from a wind event that ended on Dec.24th wind slabs are becoming more difficult to trigger. Cold temperatures are making the snow more brittle, and instead of seeing high energy shooting cracks we’re seeing wind boards crumble underfoot. Triggering an old wind slab is still possible in very steep terrain with more potential in the alpine zone. Places you might trigger an old wind slab will be in steep couloirs, large unsupported terrain features, or in thin rocky areas. Triggering a wind slab in the Treeline zone is becoming less likely, but isn’t out of the question on isolated features. The tricky part about this problem is that it will be hard to evaluate a steep slope before committing to it. The other big risk is the possibility of initiating a much larger and more dangerous avalanche if you are above 3000’. Identify features that have fat, smooth, pillow-type shapes and be suspect of any slope that may harbor a more dangerous deep slab problem. 

Steep wind loaded gullies adjacent to thin rocky areas on a SE aspect on Seattle Ridge. This is one example of where triggering a wind slab is possible.