Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Above freezing temperatures, strong winds and periods of heavy rain have impacted our forecast zone over the last four days causing a widespread avalanche cycle in the mid elevation band. In the last 24 hours Turnagain Pass received 0.9” of rain and Girdwood received 1.56” of rain, with the heaviest precip happening between 1am and 6am this morning. On Monday dozens of wet slab avalanches were observed throughout Turnagain Pass on all aspects below 3000’. Rain/snow line has been hovering between 2000’ and 3000’ and snow totals along the road are quickly shrinking. 

 Dec.10 – Dec.13 Storm Totals (Rain to 2500′)

• Turnagain Pass (Center Ridge Snotel) = 4.0” of Rain
• Girdwood (Alyeska midway station) = 6.0” of Rain

The avalanches seen on Monday released near the ground on old weak faceted snow. The most interesting (and scary) avalanches occurred on the West facing terrain of Tincan below 2500’, an area many folks go when the avalanche danger is elevated. This speaks to the powerful nature of a saturated snowpack and indicates that even small terrain features are suspect. The snowpack below 2500’ is isothermal, and triggering a small slope from below or getting caught in a terrain trap would be unsurvivable. Until the snowpack has a chance to drain and form a crust the avalanche danger remains high and travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. 

Photo taken on Tuesday, Dec.11 during a period of good visiblity. Recent avalanche on West facing terrain of Tincan at 2500′. Several more avalanches also occured in the lower elevations on small terrain features and on Todd’s run. Check out the observation HERE.  

Photo taken on Tuesday, Dec.11 during a period of good visiblity. Recent avalanche activity on SW aspect of Eddies. Several more avalanches occured lookers left on more West facing slopes. Check out the observation HERE. 

Wet and heavy snow has been falling in the Alpine, which becomes drier with elevation. Based on total rain at the mid-elevations stations an estimated 4-5 feet of snow has accumulated in the alpine this week. New snow and strong Easterly winds have been loading a weak pre-existing snowpack and as of this morning very little information is known about avalanche activity in the upper elevations. Storm snow avalanches that include storm slabs, wind slabs and cornice breaks all can be expected today. There is also potential for a larger more dangerous avalanche to release on a weak foundation near the ground. This size avalanche could run into the lower elevations in steep or channelled terrain. Evidence of such avalanches have occurred in big terrain along the Seward Highway like Pyramid’s West face and other indicator paths. As of Tuesday, the last time we could see into the Alpine, many of the upper elevation zones of Turnagain Pass remained intact. Again, the message is simple for today, avoid avalanche terrain until the snowpack has time to adjust to its new load.

Most of the snow has melted below 1000′ with the exception of some larger avalanche paths where debris can been seen, like the West face of Pyramid, lookers right side of speed limit sign.