Wed, December 14, 2016 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wed, December 14th, 2016

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Low (1)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Low (1)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Low (1)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Low (1)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Low (1)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Low (1)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

While we patiently wait for the next snow event, folks continue to get out and enjoy the blue sky days and what snow we do have. To generalize, the snowpack above treeline is anywhere from 3-6′ thick on the North end of Turnagain Pass and 2-3′ thick on the South end the Pass (more snow typically falls on the North end because it’s closer to the Arm). Along the road the snowpack is anywhere form 6″ to 20″. It has been 14 days since our last snow event that added 6-10+”. The snowpack is generally stable and turning to sugar snow from the top down (near surface faceting) and in many thinner areas like Summit Lake, from the bottom up (forming depth hoar). Essentially, these cold days are creating a very weak foundation for the next load of snow.

If you are headed out today, watch for wind slabs near ridgelines that are sitting on weak faceted snow (we received a report describing a wind slab that collapsed but didn’t release yesterday in the Girdwood Valley). Additionally, watch for cornices and ‘facet’ sluffs on very steep terrain. Last, the ‘outlier’ slab avalanche that could fail mid-pack due to the Nov 16 buried surface hoar is worth keeping in the back of your head.

Weather

Wed, December 14th, 2016

It looks as though yesterday closed up the last of the single digit temperatures and bluebird skies. A large area of low pressure is pushing in and scouring out the cold air. Temperatures warmed up to the 15-25F range from valley bottoms to ridgetops overnight and ridgetop winds have remained light from a Westerly direction.

For today we should see mostly clear skies with some valley fog. Temperatures will remain in the 15-20F range in the parking lots and mid 20’sF along the ridgelines. Winds are expected to be Northwesterly around 5-10mph on the ridgelines.

Again, the more interesting news is this weekend and next week. If the stars align we should see snow accumulation as early as Thursday, and not only snow to sea level, but snow falling at Hatcher Pass. At his point, models are showing a Southwest flow direction for Thursday into Friday – favoring Hatcher Pass as well as Anchorage. The larger system for Sunday looks to favor Turnagain Pass.

Check out part of the National Weather Service’s long term discussion below:

“.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7…Fri through Tue)…

A pattern change remains on track for late this week into next
week …. will help to usher a train of fast-moving systems … This
will bring a moderating trend to temperatures……… as well as
increased precipitation chances, especially along the coastlines.
Trends suggest there may be ample snow opportunities inland
by early next week as well.”

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	18	0	0	20
Summit Lake (1400′)	16	0	0	5
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	20	0	0	9

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	18	W	3	15
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	20	SW	4	14

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
01/27/22	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Trees/CFR	Schauer/ Rothman Forecaster
01/25/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Wagner / Keeler Forecaster
01/24/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Wagner / AJB Forecaster
01/23/22	Turnagain	Observation: Pete’s North	Sykes / Sullivan / Stiegel Forecaster
01/21/22	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Sykes / Mehl
01/20/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan Proper	Anonymous
01/20/22	Turnagain	Observation: Super Bowl	Schauer/ Rothman Forecaster
01/20/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Kit Barton
01/20/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Eddies	Andy Moderow
01/19/22	Turnagain	Observation: Lynx Creek	Sykes / Schauer Forecaster

Riding Areas

Updated Wed, December 01st, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Open	Open as of Dec 1st.
Placer River	Open	Open as of Dec 1st. Limited parking due to Portage curve construction.
Skookum Drainage	Open	Open as of Dec 1st. Limited parking due to Portage curve construction.
Turnagain Pass	Open	Open as of Saturday, Nov 27. Be aware of early season hazards (alders/creeks) and open water.
Twentymile	Open	Open as of Dec 1st.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Open	Open as of Dec 1st.
Lost Lake Trail	Open	Open as of Dec 1st.
Primrose Trail	Open	Open as of Dec 1st.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Open	Open as of Dec 1st.
Snug Harbor	Open	Open as of Dec 1st.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Open	Open as of Dec 1st.
Summit Lake	Open	Open as of Dec 1st.