Wed, December 14, 2016 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wed, December 14th, 2016

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Low (1)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Low (1)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Low (1)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Low (1)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Low (1)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Low (1)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

While we patiently wait for the next snow event, folks continue to get out and enjoy the blue sky days and what snow we do have. To generalize, the snowpack above treeline is anywhere from 3-6′ thick on the North end of Turnagain Pass and 2-3′ thick on the South end the Pass (more snow typically falls on the North end because it’s closer to the Arm). Along the road the snowpack is anywhere form 6″ to 20″. It has been 14 days since our last snow event that added 6-10+”. The snowpack is generally stable and turning to sugar snow from the top down (near surface faceting) and in many thinner areas like Summit Lake, from the bottom up (forming depth hoar). Essentially, these cold days are creating a very weak foundation for the next load of snow.

If you are headed out today, watch for wind slabs near ridgelines that are sitting on weak faceted snow (we received a report describing a wind slab that collapsed but didn’t release yesterday in the Girdwood Valley). Additionally, watch for cornices and ‘facet’ sluffs on very steep terrain. Last, the ‘outlier’ slab avalanche that could fail mid-pack due to the Nov 16 buried surface hoar is worth keeping in the back of your head.

Weather

Wed, December 14th, 2016

It looks as though yesterday closed up the last of the single digit temperatures and bluebird skies. A large area of low pressure is pushing in and scouring out the cold air. Temperatures warmed up to the 15-25F range from valley bottoms to ridgetops overnight and ridgetop winds have remained light from a Westerly direction.

For today we should see mostly clear skies with some valley fog. Temperatures will remain in the 15-20F range in the parking lots and mid 20’sF along the ridgelines. Winds are expected to be Northwesterly around 5-10mph on the ridgelines.

Again, the more interesting news is this weekend and next week. If the stars align we should see snow accumulation as early as Thursday, and not only snow to sea level, but snow falling at Hatcher Pass. At his point, models are showing a Southwest flow direction for Thursday into Friday – favoring Hatcher Pass as well as Anchorage. The larger system for Sunday looks to favor Turnagain Pass.

Check out part of the National Weather Service’s long term discussion below:

“.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7…Fri through Tue)…

A pattern change remains on track for late this week into next
week …. will help to usher a train of fast-moving systems … This
will bring a moderating trend to temperatures……… as well as
increased precipitation chances, especially along the coastlines.
Trends suggest there may be ample snow opportunities inland
by early next week as well.”

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	18	0	0	20
Summit Lake (1400′)	16	0	0	5
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	20	0	0	9

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	18	W	3	15
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	20	SW	4	14

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/28/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Turnagain Pass – late May wet slab cycle	CNFAIC Staff
05/21/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Magnum, Lipps and Tincan	CNFAIC Staff
05/17/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Sunburst	CNFAIC Staff
05/17/22	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Ridge	Joe Kurtak
05/11/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Cornbiscuit and Magnum west faces	CNFAIC Staff Forecaster
05/07/22	Turnagain	Observation: Granddaddy	Kit Barton
04/29/22	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst wx station	AS/ MM/ AM/ NH
04/28/22	Turnagain	Observation: More Turnagain Pass/Summit Lake wet slab activity	Alex Marienthal
04/27/22	Turnagain	Observation: Magnum	Sykes / Buttrick Forecaster
04/27/22	Turnagain	Observation: Girdwood/Summit/Turnagain Road obs	A S

Riding Areas

Updated Wed, June 01st, 2022

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Placer River	Closed	Closed as of April 25th due to insufficient snow coverage.
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Closed as of April 1st per Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass	Closed	Closed as of June 1st.
Twentymile	Closed	Closed as of April 6th due to insufficient snow coverage.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Lost Lake Trail	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Primrose Trail	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Snug Harbor	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Summit Lake	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.