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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Mon, November 14th, 2016 - 7:00AM
Expires
Tue, November 15th, 2016 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
CNFAIC Staff
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

There is a shift in the weather as colder air moves into the region. We will continue to post updates on conditions and some educational reminders for the season. Daily advisories will begin the week before Thanksgiving if there is enough of the white stuff!

Today’s educational theme is  GET THE PICTURE  and it’s the fourth of the five GETS!    Know Before You Go video link.

Part of GETTING THE PICTURE and the foundation to staying safe in the backcountry is recognizing avalanche terrain. Ask yourself: Can I accurately identify avalanche terrain? Can I tell if a slope is greater than 30 degrees? Am I in avalanche terrain? Take an avalanche class, learn what terrain is capable of producing an avalanche. Practice! Practice! Practice! We will talk more about how to travel on Thursday when we highlight GET OUT OF HARM’S WAY.

Speaking of avalanche terrrain, on Sunday we went to Crow Pass trail to look at snowline and see if there was any natural activity. This popular hiking trail in the summer can be very hazardous once there is snow on the ground. The hiking trail crosses through multiple avalanche paths. A small avalanche starting above could have high consequences. Travel on this trail is not recommended in the winter.  

Note the hiker walking through avalanche debris on Sunday, Nov 13th. This avalanche occurred sometime during the Nov 9th and 10th warm storm.

What does GET THE PICTURE really mean?

Many avalanche accidents can be attributed to people missing clues that indicate that the snowpack is unstable.

It is important to look for these RED FLAGS everytime you go out.  

1) Recent avalanches

2) Shooting cracks

3) Snowpack collapsing (whumpfing)

Has something changed that could have stressed the snowpack?

4) Recent snow or rain

5) Recent wind

6) Rapid temperature change

Use the Observation page: HERE  and the Weather page: HERE, in addition to checking the Avalanche Advisory to help understand the picture before you go!

Mon, November 14th, 2016
Alpine
Above 2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Announcement
    Announcement

Do you have your tickets for the fundraiser at the Bear Tooth on Thursday, November 17th @ 8 pm?

Come support avalanche safety with us and enjoy, AVALANCHE INSIGHTS-with Elyse Saugstad. Elyse is a third-generation Alaskan who became one of the best women downhill racers in the country at the age of 16, with a long list of film credits and awards to her name. Her presentation will include insights into her experience as one of the skiers in the 2012 Tunnel Creek avalanche in the Cascade Mountains. Get your tix before it sells out! We hope to see you all there! 

 

Weather
Mon, November 14th, 2016

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)        
Summit Lake (1400′)        
Alyeska Mid (1700′)        

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)        
Seattle Ridge (2400′)        
Observations
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.