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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Fri, November 11th, 2016 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sat, November 12th, 2016 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
CNFAIC Staff
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

As we begin November watching the first warm storms pass through, we will post updates on conditions and some educational reminders for the season. Daily advisories will begin the week before Thanksgiving if the snow warrants…so cross your fingers!  And remember, every season posses a new set of avalanche issues, so as we get out in the mountains let’s get our situational awareness up and complacency down.

Check out the latest from what the Nov 9th and 10th storm did to Turnagain Pass. Roughly 2-3′ of new snow fell at the high elevations with rain from around 2,500′ and below. There were several loose snow avalanches that ran near the tail end of the storm. See the photos from both Todd’s Bowl and across the street on Seattle Ridge. There was also one glide avalanche that released on the South face of Sunburst Ridge and a handful of glide cracks beginning to open up. More on that report  HERE.

If you are headed out this weekend:  Keep a close eye on changing weather. Increased wind, additional snow or rain and warming temperatures all can contribute to de-stabilizing the snowpack.

   
Loose snow avalanches in Todd’s Bowl                                             High snow line currently at Turnagain Pass (looking at Seattle Ridge)

Fri, November 11th, 2016
Alpine
Above 2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Announcement
    Announcement

OK:  Today’s educational theme is GET THE FORECAST and it’s the third of the five GETS!  Know Before You Go video link.  

 

Up here in Alaska there are many areas that do not have an avalanche forecast, so know if you are going to an area with a forecast and make sure to check it! Know the forecast zone and don’t assume the danger will be the same outside of this zone. A map for the Turnagain Pass zone is on the home page of this website. Other forecast products close to Anchorage are:  Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center and the Valdez Avalanche Center.

If you have read this far, you’re probably familiar with the North American Danger Scale – or at least the 5 colors associated with the ‘danger rating’.  What do they all mean and how do avalanche forecasters come up with the danger each day? If you’ve ever wondered this, check out the video below from the National Avalanche Center:

 

 

With all the fine print in the danger scale, what column is most important? The TRAVEL ADVICE. This is your best tool when planning your outing for the day.  

 
And last, have you ever wondered what danger rating most avalanche fatalities occur?  These fatal days are often the first day or two after a storm when skies clear but the snowpack has not yet adjusted to the new snow load.

 

Observations
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location Observer
10/27/24 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Michael Kerst
10/21/24 Turnagain Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation Trevor Clayton
10/19/24 Turnagain Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run Andy Moderow
10/18/24 Turnagain Observation: Taylor Pass Eli Neuffer
10/15/24 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Common John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24 Turnagain Avalanche: Tincan CNFAC Staff
05/13/24 Turnagain Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South H Thamm
05/13/24 Turnagain Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side Amy Holman
05/12/24 Turnagain Observation: Warm up Bowl Tony Naciuk
05/07/24 Turnagain Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs A S
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.
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