|Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
|Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
|Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.
|Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
|Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
|Likelihood of Avalanches
|Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.
|Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.
|Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.
|Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.
|Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
|Avalanche Size and Distribution
|Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.
|Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.
|Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
|Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.
|Very large avalanches in many areas.
Wind Slabs: Evidence of many large avalanches can be seen throughout Turnagain Pass following a two-day storm that brought strong Northeast winds, rain below 2500’ and 2.5’ of new snow in the Alpine. Wind slabs were active mid to late storm (Jan.27-28), but are healing quickly with cooling temperatures. Triggering a wind slab 1-3’ thick is still possible today in steep terrain where the snow is unsupported. Be on the look out for obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks or active wind loading. Be aware that both the Sunburst and Seattle Ridge anemometers are not functioning and current wind data is not available.
Cornices: With recent snow and wind loading, we can expect cornices to be tender. Remember cornices often break farther back than expected and can add a significant load to the slope below when they fall. Avoid travel on or below them.
Human Factor: Anticipate parking lots to be full and lots of people recreating throughout Turnagain Pass. Actively communicate with other groups and always practice these safe travel rituals to minimize your exposure in avalanche terrain.
Several crowns were observed in Todd’s Bowl and in the background on Eddies SW face, all likely occurred near the end of the Jan.27-28 storm.
A large D3 wet slab occured mid storm on an East aspect of Seattle Ridge, just South of the motorized lot. Cooling temperatures have helped to quickly stablize this avalanche problem.
The addition of rain and 2-3’ of new snow has accelerated the glide avalanche problem. Big brown streaks can be seen on many aspects of Turnagain Pass, including Seattle Ridge, Eddies, Wolverine, and Cornbiscuit. This problem is becoming more widespread in steep terrain between 1000’ to 2500’ where many more cracks have opened up and continue to widen. Since glide cracks can spontaneously release at any time, identify and avoid slopes with known cracks. We could see increased activity today with cooling temperatures – which is thought to be a possible trigger following a period of active loading and rain.
Recent glide avalanche on the East face of Seattle Ridge, North of the Motorized uptrack
This glide avalanched mid storm and is now covered by new snow, but be aware that glide cracks litter the entire East Face of Seattle Ridge.
With several feet of new snow and cooling temperatures triggering a point release is possible. Typically loose snow avalanches are not big enough to bury a person, but can catch you by surprise in the wrong place. This is an important hazard to manage in steep terrain where falling can have high consequences.
Yesterday skies cleared and temperatures cooled throughout the day dropping into the low to mid 20’s F overnight. At this time no wind data is available, but forecasted winds were expected to have been light.
Today skies are expected to be mostly sunny with patches of valley fog in Turnagain Pass and Turnagain Arm. Temperatures will be in the mid 20F to lower low 30’s F. Today’s forecast is calling for Westerly gap winds through Portage Valley, and light Southwest winds in Turnagain Pass.
Tempertures are expected to drop into the teens tonight and light Southwest winds will transition to Easterly winds by Sunday as clouds start moving back into the region
|Temp Avg (F)
|Snow Depth (in)
|Center Ridge (1880′)
|Summit Lake (1400′)
|Alyeska Mid (1700′)
|Temp Avg (F)
|Wind Avg (mph)
|Wind Gust (mph)
|Seattle Ridge (2400′)
|Observation: Kickstep NE Bowl
|Observation: TinCan Backdoor/ Center Ridge
|AAS L1 Turnagain
|Avalanche: Lynx Creek
|Observation: Turnagain, Seattle, Mt Ascension
|Silverton Mountain Guides
|Observation: Tincan Trees
|Dalpes/Thamm/ Schauer Forecaster
|Observation: Seward Highway across from Johnson Pass TH
|Avalanche: Base of Seattle Ridge
|Troy Tempel, Thomas Lees, .Josh Bollaert, Damian Naquin
|Observation: Lynx creek