Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sun, December 6th, 2015 - 7:00AM
Expires
Mon, December 7th, 2015 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Heather Thamm
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

A generally LOW avalanche danger exists across all elevations bands for the Turnagain Pass zone. In steep terrain near rocks where the snowpack is thinner triggering a slab 1-3′ thick is unlikely, but could have high consequences. Ease onto steep slopes one at a time and be mindful of people below you and on adjacent slopes.

*If venturing into the ‘periphery’ forecast zones, such as Girdwood Valley, Silvertip and Summit Lake areas, more caution is advised due to limited information about the snowpack in these areas.

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Sun, December 6th, 2015
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
More info at Avalanche.org

Yesterday Turnagain Pass saw many ‘slope testers’ (skiers and riders) pushing into steeper terrain and no red flags (recent avalanches, whumphing or shooting cracks) have been reported in nearly a week. Since the Thanksgiving rain event ended over a week ago a wet snowpack has frozen leaving a stable stout crust below 2500’. In the Alpine snow depths vary from 1-5’ thick with a generally thinner snowpack on Northern and Eastern slopes. In areas where the snowpack is thinner a slab 1-3’ thick sits on top of pockets of weaker snow near the ground. Because we lack x-ray vision it is unclear how widespread this basal faceted snow is across any given slope. This poor structure has shown some propagation potential in test pits this week, making it difficult to ignore. Triggering such a problem is an outlier, yet is possible in thinner areas near rocks. Caution is warranted if planning to push into steep complex terrain above 3000′. 

Snow depths in the higher elvations of Pastoral averaged between 3-5′ thick, but a poor structure can still be found. Click Here to view yesterday’s observation.

Additional Concern
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

Calm winds this week have left 8” of low-density surface snow to settle out making skiing and riding conditions quite good. Small natural point release ‘sluffs’ were observed yesterday on steep slopes in the Alpine. This is a minor concern, not enough volume to bury a person, but has the potential to knock you off your feet. 

The snow quality right now is arguably the best it’s been in over a year so no doubt the usual zones in Turnagain will be crowded.  Keep other adjacent groups in mind as you are moving through the mountains today and maintain good backcountry etiquette.  Wear and know how to use your rescue gear, expose one person at a time on a slope, discuss potential consequences if a slope does slide and don’t ski on top of other parties.

Northern aspect of Magnum ridge, where small natural point releases were observed yesterday.

 

Weather
Sun, December 6th, 2015

Yesterday above 1000′ skies were clear, temperatures were around 20F and winds were calm. In the surrounding valleys a dense fog left behind a trace of new snow.

Today a similar pattern is expected. Temperatures should remain in the low 20F and gradually warmer in the Alpine as a result of a slight inversion. Ridgetop winds are expected to be light from the Northeast, with mostly clear skies.

The first hint of a shift in the weather is Tuesday for possible snow.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 20F   trace   0.05   24  
Summit Lake (1400′) 15F   0    0 11  
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 20F   trace    0.05 20

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 20F   NE   3   7  
Seattle Ridge (2400′) 19F   n/a   n/a   n/a  
Observations
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Riding Areas
Updated Thu, June 01st, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Closed May 15.
Placer River
Closed
Closed May 15.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Will close to motorized use on April 1, 2023 per the National Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Will close on June 1.
Twentymile
Closed
Scheduled closure May 1.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Scheduled closure May 1.
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Scheduled closure May 1.
Primrose Trail
Closed
Scheduled closure May 1.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor
Closed
Extended opening until May 15.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Scheduled closure May 1.
Summit Lake
Closed
Scheduled closure May 1.

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.