Sun, November 22, 2015 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sun, November 22nd, 2015

Alpine

Above 2,500'

0 - No Rating

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

0 - No Rating

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Wind Slabs

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

More info at Avalanche.org

Below are several photos from yesterday’s active avalanche conditions. You can read reports for these, and more, on our observations page – thank you to the folks for passing on their information!

As mentioned above, we have a ‘classic’ WIND SLAB avalanche problem out in the mountains. These slabs are scattered about and vary in thickness from 10″ to 2′. The trick is, some of them sit on weak faceted snow and others do not; meaning some slabs will be reactive (avalanche if the slope is steep enough) and others will not. The best method to avoid an avalanche will be avoiding wind loaded slopes – for a while. Unfortunately, facets under a slab can take days or weeks to stabilize, patience is warranted. Another trick is finding areas that were sheltered from the wind, this is where conditions are safer, however this is difficult since the wind found its way into the trees as well.

Things to watch for:
1) Wind drifted snow, stiffer snow with a smooth rounded shape. 2) Shooting cracks (great photo sent to us below). 3) ‘Whoomphing‘

Photo below: Snowboarder triggered avalanche on Tincan, just above treeline (no one was caught).

Left photo: Test slope triggered by skier on bottom left. Right photo: Shooting crack right after test slope failed (Ted Grosgebauer).

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
04/16/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Krueger / Matthys Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	John Sykes Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Highway – Tern Lake to Portage	Joel Curtis
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	T. Olsen-Lund, R. Sullivan I. Adams
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Snomo	K. Gallaher
04/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Spokane Creek	Everet Megli
04/11/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Schauer/ Keeler Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit South Face	Todd Kelsey
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	N. Dumont J. Carlberg

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