|Travel Advice||Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.||Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.||Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.||Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.||Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.|
|Likelihood of Avalanches||Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.||Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.||Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.||Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.||Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.|
|Avalanche Size and Distribution||Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.||Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.||Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.||Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.||Very large avalanches in many areas.|
Another storm has arrived this morning and 6-10” of new snow is expected in the upper alpine in Turnagain Pass. Ridgetop winds have been averaging in the 40s mph with a recent gust to 80 mph from the East Northeast at Sunburst Weather Station. As of this morning several inches of wet heavy snow have fallen along the roadside in Turnagain Pass, and 4″ has been recored at the midway station at Alyeska. Today’s forecast is calling for .7” of water at higher elevations with an additional .3” of water this evening. Rain/snow line will likely move from 500’ to 1500’ as temperatures increase throughout the day.
This is the second storm to hit Turnagain Pass and Girdwood in the last 48hours. On March 7th a quick hitting storm brought gale force winds (averaging 40s mph) and dumping 12” of new snow in the upper Alpine of Turnagain Pass and 26” at Alyeska. Today’s storm looks similar with slightly less precipitation expected.
WIND SLABS and STORM SLABS
If strong winds and precipitation amounts reach their potential, wind slabs 10-12” thick could be easily triggered on steep leeward features along ridgetops. At lower elevations protected from winds fresh storm slabs up to 8” thick could be found in steep terrain. On Southern and Eastern aspects triggering a deeper pocket (up to 2’ thick) may be possible where an existing 12” of settled snow is sitting on a sun crust. Today it will be important to let this new storm snow adjust before venturing into bigger terrain. If the sun makes an appearance this afternoon, solar radiation will make slabs more tender and easier to trigger.
A small (D1.5) storm slab was visibile yesterday on Tincan’s Common bowl. This was triggered near the end of the March 7th storm and is an example of storm slab hazard.
LOOSE SNOW AVALANCHES
Sluffs will likely be a minor concern today, but if the sun appears wet and dry loose avalanches will likely be fast moving and could pick up speed and volume given a large enough slope.
Today’s strong winds and new snow will be adding stress to very large cornices. Natural cornice fall is possible today and thus will be important features to avoid.
Conservative decision making is essential today and If the visibility improves this afternoonn resisting temptation will be key. it will be important to give large open slopes time to adjust even if obvious signs of instabilty are not present. Don’t forget this is the second new load of snow to fall in the last 48 hours.
North facing aspects above 2,000′ have a variety of weak faceted layers 3′ below the surface. For the most part these have adjusted to the current load, however with an additional load today (new snow and wind) they have the potential to re-activate. This means either a storm snow avalanche could ‘step-down’ and trigger and deeper slide lower on the slope, or a slab could fail initially in these old weak layers. Either way, Northern aspects harbor potential for large slab avalanches.
If you find yourself hunting for fresh snow after this storm, be aware that a slab avalanche breaking in old snow 3+’ down is possible on steep North facing terrain.
Yesterday patches of sun broke through the clouds following a storm on March 7th that brought gale force winds and 12 € of new snow to higher elevations in Turnagain Pass. Light flurries in the morning left a dusting of new snow along the road on the Northern end of Turnagain Pass. Temperatures were in the mid 20’s F along ridgetops and reached 40F at 1000′. Ridgetop wind were 10-20 mph from the East.
Overnight winds began to increase around 11pm and as of this morning strong ridgetop winds from the East Northeast are averaging in the 40s (mph.) Tempertures have remained near 31F along the roadside in Turnagain Pass allowing several inches of wet heavy snow to accumulate.
Today’s forecast is calling for .7 € of water at higher elevations with an additional .3 € of water this evening. This will be in the form of rain near sea level. Ridgetop winds will reach their peak early this afternoon, 30-40mph from the East. Winds are expected to decrease this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will increase to the mid 30s F by this afternoon near 1000′ causing rain/snow line to move from 500′ to 1500′ as temperatures increase throughout the day.
|Temp Avg (F)||Snow (in)||Water (in)||Snow Depth (in)|
|Center Ridge (1880′)||32||2||0.2||61|
|Summit Lake (1400′)||33||1||0.1||12|
|Alyeska Mid (1700′)||32||4||0.42||37|
|Temp Avg (F)||Wind Dir||Wind Avg (mph)||Wind Gust (mph)|
|Seattle Ridge (2400′)||25||n/a||22||54|
|12/01/23||Avalanche: Sunburst||John Sykes Forecaster|
|12/01/23||Turnagain||Observation: Eddie’s trees||Anonymous|
|12/01/23||Turnagain||Observation: Turnagain – God’s Country||Graham Predeger Forecaster|
|11/30/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Trees||Kakiko Ramos-Leon|
|11/27/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Ridge||Schauer/ Stiassny Forecaster|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Road report: Slide with dirt on Repeat offender||Anonymous|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Pete’s North||Ben Sullender|
|11/25/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan trees||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/21/23||Observation: Spokane Creek||John Sykes Forecaster|