Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Many observations over the last week have pointed toward a strengthening snowpack in the core advisory area.  The exception to this appears to be North aspects above treeline as we’ve had reports of large avalanches in these areas over the last two days; most recently yesterday a skier triggered an avalanche and went for a 1,000’ ride on the north side of Magnum.  Let’s not forget that we have seen 3-5 feet of snow in the alpine (consolidated to 2-3 feet) over the last week that fell on a myriad of different surfaces.  Upper elevation north aspects are notorious for harboring weaker snow longer, which is exactly where surface conditions are best, but also where unstable snow is being found.  Recognize that if an avalanche is initiated, it will likely be big and encompass at least the last week’s storm (2-3’) with the potential to step down deeper. 

As days grow longer (gaining 5 min 44sec today!) and sunnier, the temptation to ski bigger lines and push further out from the road and into periphery areas is strong.  With this, safe travel protocols become increasingly important.  Expose only one person at a time on a slope and utilize good communication and true islands of safety.  

Defying gravity seems an accurate term for some cornices right now.  Given the last seven days of sticky snow and moderate ridgetop winds many of these have grown to full-curl.  Some have failed (Pyramid West face and Todd’s run) but many have only grown closer to the breaking point.  This is a much simpler problem than the aforementioned persistent slab because we can see cornices; and what we can see, we can avoid.  Simply minimize time spent underneath and give these backcountry bombs an extra wide berth when travelling on ridgelines.  

Hippy bowl ridge and large, curling cornice.

Daytime heating and light winds could be concern for wet loose avalanches on steep south and west facing slopes today.  Generally slow moving, these are a different beast than a slab avalanche.  Wet loose activity is generally of concern if the potential exists to push you off your skis and into a terrain trap.