Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

A long dry spell back in late January created a layer of weak faceted snow that has now been buried by several storms.  These storms produced several slabs that now average 2 feet in thickness in the Alpine.  The combination of slab over weak layer can be found consistently above 2,500’.  The two areas that are most unstable are:

Steep terrain between 2,500-3,000’.  The slab/weak layer combo is sitting on a firm crust in this elevation band.  The slab is thinner in this lower half of the Alpine, making it easier to impact the weak layer.  Parties continue to report collapsing in this elevation band and test results point to continued unstable snow in this zone.

Steep terrain with a Southerly component.  A stout sun crust formed over 10 days ago in this terrain and has slabs in the 1 foot range sitting on it.  We have seen sporadic natural activity in this type of terrain recently and mainly on the periphery of the forecast area.

While it has been 7 days since the last loading event, the nature of a persistent weak layer is that is can remain active for a long time.  If you’re considering getting into committing terrain keep in mind that you may find the most unstable snow well below starting zones.  Because of this it will be important to pick lower angle terrain (35 degrees or less) and slopes that provide escape options along the way.

A few inches of new snow will fall by the evening hours in the higher elevations.  Very shallow slabs in the 6” range will form and be sensitive to human triggers in steep (40 degrees and over) terrain.  This is not a significant hazard but is worth keeping in mind if you are travelling above terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or trees.