Fri, February 27, 2015 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Fri, February 27th, 2015

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Moderate (2)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Low (1)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

No Rating (0)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Moderate (2)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Low (1)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		No Rating (0)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

Information from the field yesterday validates the fact that a poor structure (slab/ weak layer/ bed surface) is persisting and a fracture, if initiated has the potential to propagate across a slope. The most reactive snow, and where you are more likely to trigger an avalanche appears to be in the mid-elevation band between 2400’ and 2900’. This is where my partners and I experienced large and frequent collapsing yesterday; prompting us to change our travel plans and seek out mellower terrain. Obvious red flags such as whumphing, recent avalanches and shooting cracks should not be taken lightly as this persistent weak layer is keeping us on the higher end of moderate danger right now.

Above 3,000’ our layer of concern is comprised of smaller, less advanced buried facets still overlain by a slab. This is more difficult to see in a snowpit and whumphing and shooting cracks may not be so obvious until a slope avalanches, making safe travel protocol of the utmost importance. Identify features of concern such as unsupported convexities and mid-slope roll overs. Avoid these areas today or at the least expose only one person at a time and have a well thought out escape route and safe zone if a slope does slide.

A further concern on south facing slopes today has to do with direct sun and inverted (warmer at ridgetops) temperatures. Rapid warming today could be enough to initiate an avalanche on steep, southerly terrain particularly near rock out crops or shallow spots in the slab as seen below.

Natural avalanche observed yesterday on the periphery of the advisory area near Grandview. SSW aspect at about 4,000′.

Weather

Fri, February 27th, 2015

Calm winds and clear skies prevailed in the backcountry yesterday with temperatures increasing to the low 30’s at ridgetops by days end as high cirrus clouds moved in. Winds are back online (light out of the west) at the Sunburst weather station after a successful anemometer replacement mission yesterday!

Temperatures are slightly inverted this morning with ridgetops readings in the low to mid-30’s while Center ridge (1880′) is reading 24 degrees at 6am. Expect this air to mix and the inversion to lessen as the sun begins heating up the earth’s surface. Winds are expected to be in the 8-20mph range shifting to the southeast as clouds stream into our region this afternoon and evening.

We may see a trace of snow overnight and up to a couple inches by tomorrow night but the upslope nature of this weak surface low looks to favor Anchorage more than the eastern Turnagain arm.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	25	0	0	40
Summit Lake (1400′)	20	0	0	6
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	24	0	0	23

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	30	*W	*6	*14
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	26	N/A	3	12

*Sunburst wind info is an average from 2pm to 6am.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Nick D'Alessio
05/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit	Heather Thamm
05/07/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks	CNFAIC Staff
05/05/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	AS/ WW Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass	Joel Curtis
04/30/23	Turnagain	Observation: Magnum	Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton
04/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral	Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Andy Moderow

Riding Areas

Updated Thu, June 01st, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Closed	Closed May 15.
Placer River	Closed	Closed May 15.
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Will close to motorized use on April 1, 2023 per the National Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass	Closed	Will close on June 1.
Twentymile	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Lost Lake Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Primrose Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Closed	Extended opening until May 15.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Summit Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.