Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Today marks the 18th day since the last significant precipitation has fallen in the Eastern Turnagain Arm area. Since then, we have had a few inches of snow fall here and there. Otherwise, cold and clear weather has been stabilizing the snowpack and loosening the snow surface.

The main issue avalanche-wise are the interesting wind patterns during the past week of high pressure. Very localized winds from all directions have moved the loose surface snow around enough to form wind slabs in scattered zones. These are not found everywhere, but should be on our radar nonetheless. One of these was found and triggered by a party two days ago in the Seattle Creek drainage. Of note for this slab was its lower elevation location (2,400′). Often these types of slabs are relegated to the higher terrain. That said, surface instabilities to watch out for:

Wind Slabs:
Shallow wind slabs have been found scattered about in exposed areas, including mid-elevation terrain. Keep an eye out for changing surface texture and areas where the snow is smooth, stiff and may have a hollow feel. These areas should be relatively easy to identify since much of the surface is soft. Committing rocky and steep terrain will be the most concerning place to find a slab; as once you identify it, avoiding it could prove challenging. 

Loose Snow Avalanches:
Cool temperatures and clear skies continue to loosen and facet the snow surface. Sluffs on steep slopes, > 40 degrees, should be expected, though remain relatively low volume and manageable.

Weather – or lack thereof, rather – could be called an “additional concern” for many of us, eh? Maybe not in the avalanche sense, but in the psychological one. Below are a couple charts illustrating the season’s snowpack to date. These data are taken from the Turnagain Pass Snotel station on Center Ridge at 1880‘. Roughly, we have 1/3 the snowpack we normally do this time of year. At the lower elevations, 1,000’ and below, anyone that has been out will know it is mush less than this.

Caution: Look and digest graphs below at your own risk! 

A bit more of a write-up and graphs can be found HERE.