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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Mon, February 2nd, 2015 - 7:00AM
Expires
Tue, February 3rd, 2015 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
John Fitzgerald
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is generally LOW around the forecast area.   Pockets of MODERATE danger exist on steep previously wind loaded slopes.   It is in this terrain where it will be possible for humans to trigger old wind slabs 8-10 € in depth.

Yesterday skiers triggered a shallow slab avalanche around 2,400′ on an East aspect in the Seattle Creek drainage.   Fortunately both members of the party were not injured or buried.   Read HERE for more details, and see photo below.   This is a good reminder that LOW danger does not mean NO danger.   Pockets of unstable snow exist despite the generally unreactive nature of the snowpack around the forecast zone.

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Mon, February 2nd, 2015
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

With a lack of significant weather over the past 2 weeks, we have seen very little avalanche activity.  Triggering an avalanche is unlikely around much of the forecast area.  Exceptions to this can be found in the following forms:

Old wind slabs
Yesterday’s skier triggered avalanche shows us that it is possible to find pockets of unstable snow.  With only occasional slight bumps in the wind over the last week, slabs that have formed are few and far between.  Localized winds have formed shallow slabs that are sitting on weak snow.  In the mid elevations that weak snow is sitting on a crust, creating the perfect slab/weak layer/bed surface combo.  If venturing into big steep terrain be on the lookout for snow that is stiff or hollow sounding.

Photo below of an avalanche triggered by skiers while bootpacking on the lower flanks of Big Chief in upper Seattle Cr drainage.  2,400′ E facing slope.  100′ across, 200′ vertical. Photo: Billy Finley

Big Chief Skier triggered

Loose Snow Avalanches
Yesterday my partner and I were able to initiate very shallow sluffs in steep terrain.  The volume of these sluffs was very low and they were fast moving.  In sustained steep terrain pay attention to snow that releases from your feet, as it has the potential to knock you over.

With these issues in mind, it is important to avoid complacency by following safe travel protocol:
-Travel one at a time on suspect slopes
-Use islands of safety for spotting or re grouping
-Have an escape route planned prior to committing to a slope
-Communicate decisions and plans well with your partners
-Watch for other groups and avoid exposing yourself and others to avalanche hazard

Weather
Mon, February 2nd, 2015

Clear skies prevailed again yesterday.   Ridegtop temperatures were mild, in the low 30s F.   Some valley locations experienced an inversion where temperatures remained in the teens F through the day. Winds were generally light.   No new precipitation was recorded.

Today looks to be very similar as high pressure remains over the area.   Temperatures along ridgetops will be in the high 20s F.   Some valley locations will experience a steep inversion and will see temps in the single digits/teens F.   Winds will be light out of the West.  

The ridge of high pressure that is parked over much of the state will shift its position slightly this week, but not enough to bring about a change.   Temperatures will drop slightly later in the week as cold air moves in from the North.   Clear and dry conditions look to remain in place through the work week.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 28 0 0 31
Summit Lake (1400′) 13 0 0 7
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 26 0 0 21

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 33 E 5 15
Seattle Ridge (2400′) 31 var 4 17
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Riding Areas
Updated Tue, April 20th, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
Placer River
Open
Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
The Skookum Valley is closed to snowmachines. This closure occurs annually on April 1 as per the CNF Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass
Open
Twentymile
Closed
Seward District
Carter Lake
Open
Lost Lake Trail
Open
Primrose Trail
Open
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor
Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Open
Summit Lake
Open

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.