Sat, March 08, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sat, March 8th, 2014

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

“Locked in place” has been our common theme over the last week. The snowpack has gone through many temperature swings- melting to refreezing- and now sits frozen, hard, and strong. The strength of the snowpack without the presence of any active weak layers makes for stable conditions and unlikely avalanche activity.

The warm temperatures that caused the melting didn’t go much higher than 4000 feet. Consequently, we can’t say the same generalizations about the higher peaks. You are more likely to find softer snow and possible unstable snow in these areas that escaped the rain and warm temperatures.

Avalanche Problem 2

Cornice

Cornice

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

More info at Avalanche.org

It is March, and our sun exposure is getting to be significant. South facing slopes are getting just enough solar heat to cause “roller balls” during the afternoon. Overhanging cornices, which tend to be large and mature this time of year, should be approached with caution or avoided all together. No matter how stable the general snowpack is, cornices can be the exception.

Weather

Sat, March 8th, 2014

The last shot of measureable snow (1-2″) was on Wednesday. That storm offered significantly more to Anchorage and Hatcher pass. Since then the weather has been mild with below freezing temperatures and light wind.

Look for sunny skies this morning and increasing clouds towards the afternoon. Variable wind to 10mph. Temperatures reaching the low 30s during the day.

A …WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING NORTH OF MOOSE PASS…! Yaaay! Snowfall amounts are likely 6-12 inches, possibly 18 inches in some areas.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
04/16/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Krueger / Matthys Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	John Sykes Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Highway – Tern Lake to Portage	Joel Curtis
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	T. Olsen-Lund, R. Sullivan I. Adams
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Snomo	K. Gallaher
04/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Spokane Creek	Everet Megli
04/11/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Schauer/ Keeler Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit South Face	Todd Kelsey
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	N. Dumont J. Carlberg

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