One more day of dust on crust conditions is on tap for the Pass and surrounding regions. Though we have a mostly stable snowpack and it has been over a week since we have seen/heard of any avalanche activity, there are a few things to keep in mind if you are venturing to the steep upper elevations. These are:
A bit on the snowpack:
The snowpack to date is composed of mostly crusts and weak snow near the surface. This, for the time being, is not a problem since there is no ‘slab’ portion to our pack. However, all bets will be off starting tomorrow as a much needed storm is on the doorstep. As we anticipate a new load, knowing the surface conditions is key. Currently, we are set up with a couple inches of weak faceted snow and surface hoar on top of a crust 1-4″ thick. This weak snow over a crust combo is a perfect weak layer and bed surface. Add a ‘slab’ of new snow on top of that tomorrow and it’s pretty easy to see that avalanche activity will be on the rise. It will be good to rein in the powder fever on the steeps this week.
During the past 23-hours (one hour less due to daylight savings time…) we have seen mostly clear skies and light winds from the west. Temperatures have averaged in the teens F at most locations. Overnight, temperatures have dropped to the low teens and valley bottoms have dropped even more to ~0F as a temperature inversion has set in.
Today will be the calm before the storm. Skies should remain mostly clear with high clouds streaming in for the afternoon. Temperatures will climb out of the single digits to near 30F at 1,000′ and up to 20F on the ridgetops. Winds will remain in the 5-10mph range and slowly shift from west to south to east through the day.
It looks like – after months of waiting – a series of ‘classic Chugach storms’ is on the way. Snowfall is expected to begin late tonight and pick up Monday. Models are showing around 1.5″ of water equivalent for late tonight through tomorrow night (that is 14-18″ of snow!). Add to that an additional 1″ of water (10-14″ of snow) for Tuesday. Snow should make it to sea level during this period but may rise to a rain/snow mix for Tuesday. These numbers are for Turnagain Pass and favored areas will likely see more and vice versa. Stay tuned.
With fear of reading too much into the crystal ball….models are showing another pulse of precip for Thursday/Friday and another for Saturday/Sunday.
|11/30/22||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/28/22||Turnagain||Observation: Pastoral||Schauer/ Wadsworth Forecaster|
|11/26/22||Turnagain||Observation: Eddies||Schauer/ Cullen Forecaster|
|11/26/22||Turnagain||Observation: Eddies||Andy Moderow|
|11/26/22||Turnagain||Observation: Lipps||Big Ripper|
|11/25/22||Turnagain||Observation: Sunburst||Hannah Smith|
|11/25/22||Turnagain||Observation: Sunnyside / Seattle Ridge||Matti Silta|
|11/25/22||Turnagain||Observation: Sunburst||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/25/22||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan Trees||Andy Moderow|
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: email@example.com
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.