Fri, March 07, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Fri, March 7th, 2014

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

Warm temps, along with a small amount of rain that fell last week has since refrozen. The rain/snow line climbed as high as 4,000’ during this period. As a result a stout crust formed up to ridge crests and summits. This crust has effectively locked the vast majority of the snowpack in place. Exceptions to this set up could be found in very steep shaded terrain above 4,000’ (where slabs 1-3′ in depth are sitting on a layer of weak snow) or on and below cornices that are sitting in the sun.

It is important to always be ready to make your own assessments, especially as conditions change. Use this advisory as a starting off point. If you observe or encounter something different let us know. You can submit your observations from the field by clicking HERE.

Despite a lack of avalanche activity, it is always important to learn, develop, and practice good travel habits. Expose only one person at a time to hazards, use islands of safety in steep terrain, and communicate decisions and plans within your group.

Weather

Fri, March 7th, 2014

Temperatures in the past 24 hours have averaged 15 degrees F at the Sunburst station (3,812′). Winds there have been light, averaging 4 mph with a max gust of 14mph. No new precipitation has fallen.

Today expect partly cloudy skies. Temperatures at 1,000′ will approach 30 degrees F. Winds will be light out of the East. No precipitation is in the forecast for today.

The extended outlook is showing the potential for a more active pattern developing in the early part of next week. Low pressure systems tracking through the gulf of Alaska could move far enough North to bring much needed snow to the area. Keep your fingers crossed!

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
10/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Michael Kerst
10/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation	Trevor Clayton
10/19/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run	Andy Moderow
10/18/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	Eli Neuffer
10/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	CNFAC Staff
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S

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