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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Fri, March 7th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sat, March 8th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
John Fitzgerald
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche hazard is LOW today.  Mostly stable snow exists in the forecast area.   Despite this, the remote possibility exists to find unstable snow in the highest elevations (above 4,000′) and around cornices.

Remember that LOW hazard is not the same as NO hazard.  

1-2 € of snow that fell 2 days ago has made travel conditions a little less noisy, but still firm enough to get bounced around.

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Fri, March 7th, 2014
Alpine
Above 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

Warm temps, along with a small amount of rain that fell last week has since refrozen.  The rain/snow line climbed as high as 4,000’ during this period.  As a result a stout crust formed up to ridge crests and summits.  This crust has effectively locked the vast majority of the snowpack in place.  Exceptions to this set up could be found in very steep shaded terrain above 4,000’ (where slabs 1-3′ in depth are sitting on a layer of weak snow) or on and below cornices that are sitting in the sun.  

It is important to always be ready to make your own assessments, especially as conditions change.  Use this advisory as a starting off point.  If you observe or encounter something different let us know.  You can submit your observations from the field by clicking HERE.   

Despite a lack of avalanche activity, it is always important to learn, develop, and practice good travel habits.  Expose only one person at a time to hazards, use islands of safety in steep terrain, and communicate decisions and plans within your group.

Weather
Fri, March 7th, 2014

Temperatures in the past 24 hours have averaged 15 degrees F at the Sunburst station (3,812′).   Winds there have been light, averaging 4 mph with a max gust of 14mph.   No new precipitation has fallen.

Today expect partly cloudy skies.   Temperatures at 1,000′ will approach 30 degrees F.   Winds will be light out of the East.   No precipitation is in the forecast for today.

The extended outlook is showing the potential for a more active pattern developing in the early part of next week.   Low pressure systems tracking through the gulf of Alaska could move far enough North to bring much needed snow to the area.   Keep your fingers crossed!

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.