|Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
|Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
|Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.
|Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.
|Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
|Likelihood of Avalanches
|Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.
|Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.
|Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.
|Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.
|Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
|Avalanche Size and Distribution
|Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.
|Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.
|Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.
|Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.
|Very large avalanches in many areas.
A complete lack of soft snow below 4000 feet makes avalanches an unlikely possibility.
We’ve had a recent pattern of melt/freeze: temperatures alternating into the 40s F during day and freezing hard at night. This has consolidated the snowpack and made it strong and firm. Despite the presence of several crust layers, the snowpack is quite stable.
Exceptions could exist at very high elevations that were not affected by melting temperatures. If you look hard enough there are always be outliers to be found.
Cornices are the other stability exception. Unstable overhanging curls of snow at ridge crests can be found without much searching. They can and will break back farther than expected if a person were to step onto one of these features.
The snowfall yesterday hit Anchorage harder than Girdwood or Turnagain Pass. There may be a slight benefit to the quality of skiing from this 1-3 inches of snow, but it is minimal.
Mostly cloudy skies this morning will become partly cloudy by tonight. Patchy fog in the morning. A few flurries in the morning are not expected to produce significant snow on the ground. Temperatures will reach into the lower 30s. Wind will be 0-10mph.
A chance of snow is forecasted for the weekend, but it doesn’t look like a major storm that will produce much snow.
|Observation: TinCan Backdoor/ Center Ridge
|AAS L1 Turnagain
|Avalanche: Lynx Creek
|Observation: Turnagain, Seattle, Mt Ascension
|Silverton Mountain Guides
|Observation: Tincan Trees
|Dalpes/Thamm/ Schauer Forecaster
|Observation: Seward Highway across from Johnson Pass TH
|Avalanche: Base of Seattle Ridge
|Troy Tempel, Thomas Lees, .Josh Bollaert, Damian Naquin
|Observation: Lynx creek
|Observation: Tincan Trees
|Moderow / Clayton