Thu, March 06, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Thu, March 6th, 2014

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

A complete lack of soft snow below 4000 feet makes avalanches an unlikely possibility.

We’ve had a recent pattern of melt/freeze: temperatures alternating into the 40s F during day and freezing hard at night. This has consolidated the snowpack and made it strong and firm. Despite the presence of several crust layers, the snowpack is quite stable.

Exceptions could exist at very high elevations that were not affected by melting temperatures. If you look hard enough there are always be outliers to be found.

Cornices are the other stability exception. Unstable overhanging curls of snow at ridge crests can be found without much searching. They can and will break back farther than expected if a person were to step onto one of these features.

Weather

Thu, March 6th, 2014

The snowfall yesterday hit Anchorage harder than Girdwood or Turnagain Pass. There may be a slight benefit to the quality of skiing from this 1-3 inches of snow, but it is minimal.

Mostly cloudy skies this morning will become partly cloudy by tonight. Patchy fog in the morning. A few flurries in the morning are not expected to produce significant snow on the ground. Temperatures will reach into the lower 30s. Wind will be 0-10mph.

A chance of snow is forecasted for the weekend, but it doesn’t look like a major storm that will produce much snow.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
10/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Michael Kerst
10/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation	Trevor Clayton
10/19/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run	Andy Moderow
10/18/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	Eli Neuffer
10/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	CNFAC Staff
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S

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