Wed, March 05, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wed, March 5th, 2014

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Low (1)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Low (1)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Low (1)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Low (1)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Low (1)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Low (1)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

With temperatures cooling significantly since the most recent Feb 28^th warm-up our snowpack is pretty well locked in place and capped off by a 1-4″ melt freeze crust. New snow today doesn’t appear significant enough to tip the balance in terms of triggering large avalanches. However travellers in steep terrain may experience loose snow sluffs or shallow storm slabs comprised of any new snow accumulation from today. These will likely be less than 12″ deep, sliding easily on the surface crust. This avalanche problem is quite manageable and should only prove concerning for travellers in steep, high consequence terrain.

Continue to follow proper backcountry travel protocol in these times of low avalanche danger, as winter is NOT over yet! With March and April ahead of us, this optimist’s glass is still half full!

Additional Concerns:

Widespread surface hoar capped our most recent melt freeze crust on Monday. With moderate winds yesterday and overnight, any snowfall from today has the potential to bury much of this intact. Though this shouldn’t be a problem today given the lack of forecasted snow it warrants our attention as a future weak layer/ bed surface combination if buried intact.

Cornices continue to grow across our region with little evidence of failure to date. Continue to give these ‘backcountry bombs’ a wide berth and generally just be aware of where you are at in relation to a cornice.

Weather

Wed, March 5th, 2014

Temperatures yesterday hovered right around the freezing mark at 1,000′ with low 20’s at ridgetop locations. Winds were light with moderate gusts into the mid-20 mph range from the south and east with no measurable snow accumulation in our region.

The lion’s share of forecasted precipitation in south-central Alaska today appears to be well north of Turnagain pass toward Talkeetna and the Susitna Valley with Anchorage receiving a decent shot of moisture as well. In the Eastern Turnagain Arm area, we may see up to a couple inches of snow down to sea level, temperatures in the low 30’s at 1,000′ and generally light winds from the SE in the 7-20mph range at ridgetops today.

Looking out toward the weekend there is a North Pacific low tracking into the gulf by late Friday that should impact south-central AK through the weekend. More to come on that €¦

See below for a brief summary of snowpack and water data that Wendy put together yesterday:

As of March 1st from the Turnagain Pass SNOTEL at 1880′ elevation on Center Ridge:

Snow depth: 42″, this is 47% of average…ouch (Only 10 years of data exist so far, 2005-2014)
Precipitation (graph below): 86% of average (due to rain in October and January)
SWE (graph below): 50% of normal for the median SWE

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Nick D'Alessio
05/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit	Heather Thamm
05/07/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks	CNFAIC Staff
05/05/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	AS/ WW Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass	Joel Curtis
04/30/23	Turnagain	Observation: Magnum	Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton
04/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral	Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Andy Moderow

Riding Areas

Updated Sat, September 23rd, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Placer River	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Turnagain Pass	Closed	Scheduled opening on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving per Chugach National Forest plan. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Twentymile	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Lost Lake Trail	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Primrose Trail	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Snug Harbor	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.
Summit Lake	Closed	Scheduled opening per Chugach National Forest plan December 1. Subject to adequate snow cover.