Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

The persistent slab problem continues to trend toward less likely, but large high consequence avalanches will result if triggered.  Snow pits are showing mixed results now…  Sometimes the layers are not reacting.  It’s worth keeping in mind that all pit information is overruled by other signs and symptoms.  Collapsing, or recent avalanche activity means that the snowpack is inherently unstable, and steeper slopes can slide.  

The photo below is from yesterday on Tenderfoot at Summit lake. Click here for a writeup and another photo. The Summit region is often a poor comparison to Turnagain Pass or Girdwood, but right now it represents what any shallower snowpack areas can do.  This is another remotely triggered avalanche, one of many in the past week.

Recent snowfall (over 2 feet of wet snow in the last 10 days) has now consolidated into a fairly strong and connected slab.  This is good because it is now more difficult for a person’s weight to penetrate that dense layer and collapse the weaker snow at or below the drizzle crust.  However, it’s bad because the resulting avalanche when a trigger point is found is now larger and more dangerous.  The likelihood of triggering has decreased, but the avalanche size and destructive force has increased.

Trigger points are likely to be shallower wind stripped pockets, possibly close to exposed rocks or trees.