Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

We haven’t heard of any new avalanche activity since Sunday, when a substantial natural avalanche cycle occurred in addition to a second-hand report of snowmachine-triggered avalanche activity near Seattle ridge.  This most recent cycle has a common theme in the fact that all of these avalanches have been quite large, propagating across entire slopes with faceted snow near the ground proving the common and persistent weak layer. Recent results from the snowpit show these weak layers have been slow to gain strength as Fitz’s video here points out.  This is a great example of the persistent slab problem that has dominated our primary concern over much of the last three weeks.

As few people have been venturing into the backcountry since the Jan. 5th storm, our information is limited.  What information we do have, points toward a snowpack hanging in the balance with a poor structure, moderate strength and high energy.  In a nutshell this means that if a fracture is initiated on or below a slope steep enough to avalanche (> 35 degrees) there is good potential that the crack will propagate far and wide, creating a large and unmanageable avalanche.  Likely trigger points include thin spots in the slab or near rocks and trees mid-slope.

Maintain astute situational awareness and be mindful of any obvious signs of instability if you travel into the backcountry today.  Conservative terrain selection and proper travel protocol will be key.

In areas below treeline where the surface snow is still wet, exists a very poor snowpack structure with free water percolating throughout.  Once overnight temperatures maintain below the freezing mark, this lower elevation snowpack will ‘lock-up’ and we’ll likely see Low danger in this elevation band.