Fri, January 10, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Fri, January 10th, 2014

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Considerable (3)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Moderate (2)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Moderate (2)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Considerable (3)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Moderate (2)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Moderate (2)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

It’s been 5 days since the last significant storm and subsequent avalanche cycle. In the time since this last storm the weak snowpack has been able to adjust to this newest load. Each day it becomes more difficult to trigger avalanches. The weak layers near the bottom of the snowpack have also slowly gained strength.

However, the problem has not gone away. Weak snow near the ground continues to show the potential to produce large avalanches. Potential slab depth ranges from 1 foot in the lower elevations to 3 feet near ridge lines.

The potential also exists for avalanches to propagate across entire slopes. Because of these factors, it is important to continue to treat all slopes, especially above 35 degrees, with suspicion. The obvious warning signs (recent avalanches, shooting cracks, collapsing) will potentially not show themselves. Now is a time when it is important to know what is below the surface. When entering avalanche terrain it is important to practice good travel habits; expose only one person at a time, stop in islands of safety, and communicate plans within your group.

Weather

Fri, January 10th, 2014

In the past 24 hours the mountains around Eastern Turnagain Arm have received a trace of new snow. Ridgetop winds have been light out of a variety of directions averaging 3mph with gusts to 11mph. Temperatures have been on a slight decline with current ridgetop stations reading 15-18 degrees F.

Today expect cloudy skies with occasional flurries. Winds will be light out of the NW at 5-10mph. Temperatures will warm into the high 20s F at 1,000′.

The long term outlook calls for a continuation of cloudy conditions with only light precipitation and a gradual cooling pattern. The next chance for more significant precipitation looks to be towards the middle of next week.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/21/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Magnum, Lipps and Tincan	CNFAIC Staff
05/17/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Sunburst	CNFAIC Staff
05/17/22	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Ridge	Joe Kurtak
05/11/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Cornbiscuit and Magnum west faces	CNFAIC Staff Forecaster
05/07/22	Turnagain	Observation: Granddaddy	Kit Barton
04/29/22	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst wx station	AS/ MM/ AM/ NH
04/28/22	Turnagain	Observation: More Turnagain Pass/Summit Lake wet slab activity	Alex Marienthal
04/27/22	Turnagain	Observation: Magnum	Sykes / Buttrick Forecaster
04/27/22	Turnagain	Observation: Girdwood/Summit/Turnagain Road obs	A S
04/24/22	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge – large glide avalanche on Repeat Offender path	CNFAIC Staff Forecaster

Riding Areas

Updated Fri, May 13th, 2022

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Placer River	Closed	Closed as of April 25th due to insufficient snow coverage.
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Closed as of April 1st per Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass	Open	Open. Extended opening through May 31.
Twentymile	Closed	Closed as of April 6th due to insufficient snow coverage.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Lost Lake Trail	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Primrose Trail	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Snug Harbor	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.
Summit Lake	Closed	Closed as of May 1 per Forest Plan.