Fri, January 10, 2014 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Fri, January 10th, 2014

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Considerable (3)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Moderate (2)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Moderate (2)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Considerable (3)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Moderate (2)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Moderate (2)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

It’s been 5 days since the last significant storm and subsequent avalanche cycle. In the time since this last storm the weak snowpack has been able to adjust to this newest load. Each day it becomes more difficult to trigger avalanches. The weak layers near the bottom of the snowpack have also slowly gained strength.

However, the problem has not gone away. Weak snow near the ground continues to show the potential to produce large avalanches. Potential slab depth ranges from 1 foot in the lower elevations to 3 feet near ridge lines.

The potential also exists for avalanches to propagate across entire slopes. Because of these factors, it is important to continue to treat all slopes, especially above 35 degrees, with suspicion. The obvious warning signs (recent avalanches, shooting cracks, collapsing) will potentially not show themselves. Now is a time when it is important to know what is below the surface. When entering avalanche terrain it is important to practice good travel habits; expose only one person at a time, stop in islands of safety, and communicate plans within your group.

Weather

Fri, January 10th, 2014

In the past 24 hours the mountains around Eastern Turnagain Arm have received a trace of new snow. Ridgetop winds have been light out of a variety of directions averaging 3mph with gusts to 11mph. Temperatures have been on a slight decline with current ridgetop stations reading 15-18 degrees F.

Today expect cloudy skies with occasional flurries. Winds will be light out of the NW at 5-10mph. Temperatures will warm into the high 20s F at 1,000′.

The long term outlook calls for a continuation of cloudy conditions with only light precipitation and a gradual cooling pattern. The next chance for more significant precipitation looks to be towards the middle of next week.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	Brooke Edwards
01/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	W Wagner
01/27/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	John Sykes
01/27/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Lynx Creek	Megan Guinn / W Wagner
01/25/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	John Sykes Forecaster
01/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Schauer/ Guinn
01/21/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Elias Holt
01/21/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Lynx drainage – avalanche	CNFAIC Staff
01/21/23	Turnagain	Avalanche/People Involved: Warm up bowl (-1 bowl) avalanche	Anonymous
01/21/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Sunburst Ridge	Megan Guinn / W Wagner

Riding Areas

Updated Fri, January 06th, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Placer River	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Turnagain Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Twentymile	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Seward District
Carter Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Lost Lake Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Primrose Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Summit Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.