Mon, December 09, 2013 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Mon, December 9th, 2013

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

Hazards associated with early season conditions continue to be the main problem to deal with in the mountains around eastern Turnagain Arm. Exposed rocks and a variable crust will make travel difficult in avalanche terrain today.

Snowpack Discussion
Over the weekend we followed the development of our newest crust on the surface. This thin crust exists at all elevations and in most areas has a layer of surface hoar sitting on top. While this crust/surface hoar combo is not dangerous now, it will have our attention when a slab forms on top of it in the future. Continue to check our observations page as we monitor the development of our snowpack.

Weather

Mon, December 9th, 2013

The ridge of high pressure that brought spring like weather to the mountains over the weekend is breaking down today. Ridge top temperatures are in the low twenties F this morning.

A weak disturbance associated with a low pressure system to the Southwest will bring the chance of some light flurries through the day. This will help to push the remaining areas of fog out of the lower elevations. Winds will be light out of the West and ridge top temps will reach into the mid to upper twenties F.

As this high pressure ridge breaks down a series of low pressure systems will brush by well to the South of the area over the next several days. This will translate to cooler temps, cloudy skies and low chance for precip until later in the week.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S
04/29/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs	Tully Hamer
04/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Johnson Pass	Noah Mery
04/23/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side	Travis SMITH
04/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Bertha Creek	Anonymous
04/20/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Spokane Creek	Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster
04/16/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Krueger / Matthys Forecaster

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