Wed, December 11, 2013 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wed, December 11th, 2013

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Low (1)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Low (1)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Low (1)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Low (1)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Low (1)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Low (1)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

The recent cold temperatures, after the early December warm spell, have essentially tied the surface of our snowpack together with a crust. The crust is unsupportable in most areas and breaking through into the weak sugar snow below can make skiing and riding challenging. You can see a few recent observations discussing this HERE and HERE.

Again, the main hazards in the backcountry are rocks and other objects near the snow surface. I would also argue that an additional hazard is negotiating the ‘ankle grabbing’ surface crust.

Snowpack Discussion:
A layer of surface hoar has formed on the top of our snowpack during the past few days. This is anchored to the crust that caps the snowpack and forms a surface hoar/crust combination. Though the combo not dangerous now, it will have our attention when we get our next shot of snow and a slab forms on top.

Surface hoar on Seattle Ridge (2,500′). Photo: Fitz Surface hoar on breakable crust near Ingram Creek. Photo: Bob Sutherland

Weather

Wed, December 11th, 2013

During the past 24-hours we have been on the north side of a large low pressure system sitting well to our south. This has brought cloud cover but no precipitation to our zone. Temperatures have been in the 20’s F at most locations and wind light from the southeast.

This pattern will remain through the day before it breaks down and colder air ushers in from the north tomorrow. We can expect partly cloudy skies today with temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 20’s F across the board. We do have a chance for a few flurries. Winds will be light and variable before turning northeast tonight with the approach of the colder polar air. Wednesday we should see skies clear and temperatures in the teens and single digits with light northerly winds.

If you have read this far in the advisory you may be happy to hear that a shift in our weather pattern is coming this weekend. Confidence looks to be high at the NWS that a decent precipitation event is headed our way. Let’s cross our fingers the models are right. See their full discussion HERE.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
01/31/23	Turnagain	Observation: Johnson Pass area	Megan Guinn / W Wagner Forecaster
01/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Backdoor	AAS-Level 1 1/27-1/30
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	Brooke Edwards
01/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	W Wagner
01/28/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	Tony Naciuk
01/27/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	John Sykes
01/27/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Lynx Creek	Megan Guinn / W Wagner
01/25/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	John Sykes Forecaster
01/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Schauer/ Guinn
01/21/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Elias Holt

Riding Areas

Updated Fri, January 06th, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Placer River	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Turnagain Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Twentymile	Closed	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow (holiday storms rained away the snow at sea level).
Seward District
Carter Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Lost Lake Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Primrose Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Summit Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.