Sun, December 08, 2013 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sun, December 8th, 2013

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Wet Loose

Wet Loose

Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

More info at Avalanche.org

During the past two days we have seen a handful of wet point release avalanches due to our unseasonably warm spring-like weather. Yesterday they were confined to steep sunny slopes during the middle part of the day where the sun – yes, even as low as it is right now – was able to melt the surface crusts. Similar conditions should be on the radar today. This is a fairly straightforward avalanche problem to manage. Steer clear of any steep slope with wet, mushy and unsupportable snow. The clear skies overnight have likely refrozen the melted surfaces from yesterday but the sun coupled with the ambient above freezing temperatures may be enough to melt these southerly aspects again.

Photo below is a wet point release avalanche on Tincan from yesterday 12/7 (SW, 3,500′). VIDEO HERE.

The slope has to be quite steep (over 40deg) for these avalanches to initiate but once they do they can gain enough momentum and run quite far. Debris can also be funneled through steep gullies and this can become a very real hazard for ice climbers. A report was sent in from the Portage Valley on Friday of an older debris pile near a popular ice climbing area.

Weather

Sun, December 8th, 2013

Valley fog covers most low-lying areas this morning as it did yesterday. Above the fog, skies are mostly clear and temperatures warm, in the 30’sF. Sunburst is reporting 38F at 6am and should remain in the 30’sF for the day along with most mid and upper elevations. Skies should be sunny today – again, above the fog – and winds light from the west.

This should be the last day of spring-like weather. Starting Monday cooler temperatures move in and Tuesday we have a chance for a few flurries as a weak system brushes by us from the west. It does not look like we will accumulate much in the order of snow with this system.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
04/16/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Krueger / Matthys Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	John Sykes Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Highway – Tern Lake to Portage	Joel Curtis
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	T. Olsen-Lund, R. Sullivan I. Adams
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Snomo	K. Gallaher
04/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Spokane Creek	Everet Megli
04/11/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Schauer/ Keeler Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit South Face	Todd Kelsey
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	N. Dumont J. Carlberg

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