Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The Bottom Line
As our cold and clear weather persists, we continue to be high and dry for snowfall this early season. However, the weather models are showing a low pressure system developing south of the Aleutians, this will hopefully track in our direction for the weekend.
Where does our snowpack stands as of now? Weak and thin. We have roughly 6″ to 30″ of snow on the ground from sea level to 4,000′ respectively. This snow is becoming looser and more faceted by the day. In exposed areas, much of the snow cover is being capped by variable wind crusts and/or a thin melt-freeze crust (the melt-freeze crust was formed by a warm air mass that moved through last Thursday – see graph in mt. weather section). Old wind slabs are scattred about as well. Yet, these crusts and older slabs are slowly being eaten away by the cold temperatures.
The last avalanche activity was 5 days ago on Nov 14th when several point release damp snow avalanches occurred due to the warm temperatures. Before that was the Nov 10-11 storm day avalanche cycle.
Below is a photo that was sent in on Sunday showing the snow surface in the Summit Lake area. This image also captures what has been seen in the Turnagain area: A thin wind/melt-freeze crust with very loose snow in variable depths underneath.
As we look forward to the next snowfall we are keeping a close eye on how this existing surface develops. Right now, we have a classic weak layer set up: faceted snow on the ground, intermittent crusts capping that and in some location surface hoar topping the whole enchilada. Things are looking ripe for some exiting avalanche conditions with the next storm.
Note: Thanks to those folks who have passed on observations !
Special AnnouncementsWith minimal snow cover on the ground in the Turnagain Pass area, we are still issuing intermittent updates. Full advisories, 4-5 days a week, will begin with the next good storm system – hopefully not too far away. Starting in early December we will be fully funded and staffed with the arrival of John Fitzgerald (aka “Fitz”) and 7 day a week forecasts will begin.
