|Travel Advice||Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.||Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.||Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.||Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.||Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.|
|Likelihood of Avalanches||Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.||Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.||Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.||Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.||Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.|
|Avalanche Size and Distribution||Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.||Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.||Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.||Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.||Very large avalanches in many areas.|
Winds have shifted and temperatures are climbing as the leading edge of a low pressure system approaches from the southeast. Check out the Sunburst temperature trace. Light snowfall should begin this afternoon and intensify later tonight. Models are showing around 1.5″ of water by tomorrow night. This equates to 15″ of medium density snow around 1,000′. We will likely see more in favored areas and at the higher elevations. Winds are from the SE and forecast to increase to 60mph on the ridgetops though tonight/tomorrow then back off to the 20’s by tomorrow evening. The peak of the storm looks to be midnight tonight. We may see some rain at sea level mid-storm and ridgetop temperatures climb to ~30F. Cold air in the teens should replace the warm air rather quickly however and by tomorrow evening snow returning to sea level.
Instability showers look to set in for Saturday and Sunday. We may squeak a few more inches out of these.
Below is the 10am Infrared satellite image that our friends at the NWS in Anchorage produce.
|11/27/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Ridge||Schauer/ Stiassny Forecaster|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Road report: Slide with dirt on Repeat offender||Anonymous|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Pete’s North||Ben Sullender|
|11/25/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan trees||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/21/23||Observation: Spokane Creek||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/19/23||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum – PMS Bowl||Schauer/ Cullen/ Jonas Forecaster|
|11/19/23||Other Regions||Observation: Sunnyside/Penguin||Jose Ramos-Leon|
|11/19/23||Turnagain||Observation: Eddies||Andy Moderow|