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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sat, November 9th, 2013 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, November 10th, 2013 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Wendy Wagner
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

During the past week there have been a few reports trickling in and one human triggered avalanche in the  Front Range  area.  Snow cover right now starts just above 2000ft and is nil to a couple feet deep in catchment zones. Below is a photo of Seattle Ridge from the Center Ridge parking lot on Wednesday, November 6th.


As we head into the weekend we have a storm on tap that will hopefully produce in our neck of the woods. In this case, we need to get our avalanche game on. Things to be on the lookout for are both storm snow instabilities as well as how the new snow is sticking to the variety of preexisting surfaces.

Storm snow instabilities: These are in the form of fresh wind slabs,  sluffing in the new snow or soft slab avalanches often due to  upside-down storms.  Simply being aware of your surroundings can tell you much about what type of storm snow issues you may have to deal with.

Preexisting surface concerns:
           Bare ground. This can be a problem when the ground is warm. If new snow stacks up quick enough, storm snow can be lubricated from underneath and slide – either in a slab or a point release avalanche.
           
Old snow  – above 2000ft. We have little information on the preexisting snow at the higher elevations but all signs point to it being mostly loose and faceted  (photo below). This is due to our recent cold/dry spell. Other types of surfaces that have been reported are  hard windpacked snow, wind/rain crusts and creamy recycled powder. Though none of these surfaces are great for new snow to bond with, it is the loose faceted snow that seems the most prevalent and is a textbook weak layer. Any snowfall or wind deposited snow on top of this is a perfect avalanche producer. If we do happen to get enough snow to lure folks out I’d be very suspect of areas with old snow underneath – these areas are usually the same places we want to recreate.


Loose faceted snow from 2,400ft on Seattle Ridge – Friday, Nov 8th.

A note on rescue gear:

If you haven’t done so already,  make sure all your rescue gear is in order. That means putting  new batteries in your beacon and cleaning the terminals  if necessary. Check to see if the cable that holds your probe together is still well intact at the hinge points and not going to break upon assembly. Is your airbag working properly? The  American Avalanche Institute has a bunch of great blogs  to peruse as we await the white stuff.

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Sat, November 9th, 2013
Alpine
Above 2,500'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
No Rating (0)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
No Rating (0)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Weather
Sat, November 9th, 2013

With cool and mostly clear weather the last several days it finally looks like we have a shot of precip Sunday into Monday. A cold front will move through Alaska starting warm (Sun) and leaving cold (Mon). How much snow will we get at Turnagain? Well, it’s a bit too early to tell and it also depends on the flow direction – we are not set up that well with this system. However, the models are showing around an inch of water, yet a bit more in favored areas like Hatcher Pass. This equates to roughly a foot at the high elevations and a couple inches of wet snow over rain at sea level.

Observations
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location
04/19/21 Turnagain Avalanche: Triangle, Seattle creek
04/18/21 Turnagain Avalanche: Turnagain Pass Road Obs
04/18/21 Turnagain Observation: Seattle Ridge, approximately 300 yards south of the up track
04/17/21 Turnagain Avalanche: Road obs
04/16/21 Turnagain Avalanche: Seattle Ridge
04/16/21 Turnagain Avalanche: Turnagain Pass, non-motorized side seen from Seattle Ridge
04/16/21 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst
04/15/21 Turnagain Observation: Tincan
04/13/21 Turnagain Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Obs
04/12/21 Turnagain Observation: Tincan
Riding Areas
Updated Tue, April 20th, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Open
No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
Placer River
Open
Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
The Skookum Valley is closed to snowmachines. This closure occurs annually on April 1 as per the CNF Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass
Open
Twentymile
Closed
Seward District
Carter Lake
Open
Lost Lake Trail
Open
Primrose Trail
Open
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor
Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Open
Summit Lake
Open

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.