|Travel Advice||Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.||Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.||Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.||Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.||Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.|
|Likelihood of Avalanches||Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.||Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.||Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.||Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.||Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.|
|Avalanche Size and Distribution||Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.||Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.||Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.||Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.||Very large avalanches in many areas.|
Sluffing was easy to initiate yesterday with the ultra dry layer on the surface. Steeper confined terrain like chutes and couloirs could likely entrain enough volume to knock someone off their feet.
From the avalanche perspective, loose snow is a manageable concern. Use the terrain to let the sluff fall away and to the side of your line, stop periodically to allow it to pass, or keep enough speed to stay in front of it.
Wind appeared to be strongest overnight through the channeled terrain of Turnagain Arm. Sunburst station showed relatively little wind. In those areas that saw gusting into the 20s we may have wind slab at higher elevations. The dry nature of the recent snowfall makes that snow easy to pick up and move around by the wind. Many of the weather stations showed a northwest wind direction, meaning that south and east facing slopes are most likely to have wind slabs.
Besides the surface snow, the underlying bed surface may contribute to the problems. Southerly faces and anything that got sun exposure in the last week will have a thick crust under the new snow. That crust may contribute to poor bonding of other layers and complicate the issues.
Temperatures dropped overnight, with ridgetop temperatures near 0 degrees or colder in some areas. Sea level is in the mid teens, and we will see some daytime increase.
A small amount of snow is in the forecast and some areas got a few inches overnight. Expect any snow to be very light and dry.
Northwest wind will stay minimal, less that 10mph.
Fitz will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning, April 11th.
|11/27/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Ridge||Schauer/ Stiassny Forecaster|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Road report: Slide with dirt on Repeat offender||Anonymous|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Pete’s North||Ben Sullender|
|11/25/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan trees||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/21/23||Observation: Spokane Creek||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/19/23||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum – PMS Bowl||Schauer/ Cullen/ Jonas Forecaster|
|11/19/23||Other Regions||Observation: Sunnyside/Penguin||Jose Ramos-Leon|
|11/19/23||Turnagain||Observation: Eddies||Andy Moderow|