Sun, April 07, 2013 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sun, April 7th, 2013

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

The weather pattern over the past day has left Turnagain Pass with little to show for in the way of new snow. Because of this and the current/forecasted weather, the snowpack is stable in most areas. It’s important to remember that LOW hazard does not mean NO hazard. While it would take an unusual event to produce an avalanche today, there are some issues to pay attention to:

Isolated pockets of wind slab. The small amount of new snow that has fallen over the weekend sits on slick crusts on south aspects and surface hoar and facets on north aspects above ~3,500′. With 2-3″ of new snow & moderate winds forecasted for today, expect pockets up to 6″ deep in leeward starting zones and above cross loaded gullies. These slabs should not be a problem on their own, but could pose problems for people above terrain traps or in exposed terrain.

Cornices. Keep your distance from cornices today. Some of the largest avalanches we have seen in the region over the last month have been related to cornice fall.

Wet loose avalanches will be possible in the lower elevations as the temperatures rise. These will be small in volume and more likely if the sun makes an apperance.

Weather

Sun, April 7th, 2013

The mountains around Eastern Turnagain arm picked up ~2-3″ of new snow over the past 24 hours. Winds at the Sunburst weather station (3,812′) averaged 11 mph out of the SE. Temperatures there averaged 16.8 degrees F.

Today expect a mix of sun and cloudy skies with another 2-3″ of snow possible. Temperatures at 1,000′ will be in the low to mid 30s F. Ridgetop winds will pick up slightly and blow 15mph out of the S.

The extended outlook calls for a continuation of unsettled weather as we head into the early part of the week.

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Wendy will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning, April 8th.

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
10/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Michael Kerst
10/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation	Trevor Clayton
10/19/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run	Andy Moderow
10/18/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	Eli Neuffer
10/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	John Sykes Forecaster
10/14/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	CNFAC Staff
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S

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