If I could relabel the icon on the left as “Persistent Weak Layer”, it would tell the story a bit more accurately. Faceted snow at the ground is still the culprit, but the overlying snow is also slowly rotting away in our colder temperatures. This means the former slab over the persistent weak layer is degrading into “weak layer over weak layer”. Everything is faceting, getting weaker, and losing the potential to propagate into destructive avalanches. Check out a pit profile from yesterday HERE.
However, we are still finding pockets that will collapse or “whoomph” when you set your own skin track. This indicates enough of a stiffer slab component to collapse as a unit. Any areas that show this sign should be considered for avalanche potential. We found whoomphing on the lee side of a wind loaded ridge yesterday, which convinced us to go elsewhere. We know that recent avalanches have happened without human influence. Despite evidence of better stability, I’m not ready to tell myself that I can outsmart the current problem.
The best way to manage terrain this weekend is to monitor slope angles and keep it less than 35 degrees. All the recent avalanche activity (HERE, HERE and HERE) has happened on steeper slopes, so this should be an effective strategy. The picture below shows 2 recent avalanches on Sunburst, and illustrates the terrain that is likely to harbor more avalanche potential.
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