Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
We are issuing advisories 5 days a week through November on Sat, Sun, Tue, Thur and Fri.
Cold temperatures and no significant precipitation in several days is leading to a slow decrease in the avalanche danger. Pockets of stiffer slab over very weak facets at the ground still create the avalanche recipe in specific places. Conservative terrain management is still advised. Below treeline is generally LOW avalanche danger.
If I could relabel the icon on the left as “Persistent Weak Layer”, it would tell the story a bit more accurately. Faceted snow at the ground is still the culprit, but the overlying snow is also slowly rotting away in our colder temperatures. This means the former slab over the persistent weak layer is degrading into “weak layer over weak layer”. Everything is faceting, getting weaker, and losing the potential to propagate into destructive avalanches. Check out a pit profile from yesterday HERE.
However, we are still finding pockets that will collapse or “whoomph” when you set your own skin track. This indicates enough of a stiffer slab component to collapse as a unit. Any areas that show this sign should be considered for avalanche potential. We found whoomphing on the lee side of a wind loaded ridge yesterday, which convinced us to go elsewhere. We know that recent avalanches have happened without human influence. Despite evidence of better stability, I’m not ready to tell myself that I can outsmart the current problem.
The best way to manage terrain this weekend is to monitor slope angles and keep it less than 35 degrees. All the recent avalanche activity (HERE, HERE and HERE) has happened on steeper slopes, so this should be an effective strategy. The picture below shows 2 recent avalanches on Sunburst, and illustrates the terrain that is likely to harbor more avalanche potential.
We continue to be locked into a clear and cold weather pattern. A 30 degree temperature inversion is showing on weather stations this morning, with comfortable temperatures in the 20s at the ridgetops. Weather models are showing some kind of pattern change early next week.
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).
Wendy will issue the next advisory Sunday morning, November 25th.
|05/22/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan||Nick D'Alessio|
|05/12/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit||Heather Thamm|
|05/07/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks||CNFAIC Staff|
|05/05/23||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle Ridge||AS/ WW Forecaster|
|05/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Cornbiscuit||Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster|
|05/02/23||Turnagain||Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass||Joel Curtis|
|04/30/23||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum||Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton|
|04/29/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan||John Sykes|
|04/28/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral||Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster|
|04/28/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan||Andy Moderow|
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.