Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE at elevations above 1,000′. Triggering either a fresh wind slab from overnight or a lingering wind slab from earlier this week is possible. These slabs are around 1-2′ thick and found on wind loaded steeper slopes and in steep cross-loaded gullies. Additionally, between 1300-2500’, there is a small chance of triggering a deeper avalanche (3-5′ thick) on weak snow near a crust that formed Dec 1st.
The avalanche danger is LOW below 1,000′.
SUMMIT LAKE: With a thinner and weaker snowpack, there is still a small possibility of triggering an avalanche on a weak layer buried mid-pack or near the ground.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Another round of easterly ridgetop winds hit the region last night as a small weather system is moving through currently. Overnight, between 1-3″ of new snow has fallen and another 1-2″ is expected for today; this is above 400′ as below, light rain is expected. The ridgetop east winds were blowing 20-30mph from 8pm last night till around 2am this morning before quieting down to 10-20mph, where they should remain for the day. This said, we can expect some fresh wind slabs out there in exposed areas in addition to lingering wind slabs from earlier in the week.
Most of these fresh slabs are likely to be in the higher elevations, around a foot thick, and possible to trigger. With today’s poor light, travel into the Alpine may be somewhat thwarted, but finding these in the mid-elevations is also possible. While most older wind slabs seem to be fairly stuck into place, there is still a chance a few lurking stubborn slabs could pose a threat on just the right steep wind loaded slope. Keeping a close eye out for the classic wind slab tell-tale signs will be key.
Classic wind slab signs:
A couple ‘Normal Caution’ avalanche issues: On steep slopes out of the winds where loose surface snow is found, keep an eye on your sluff. And, as always, give cornices a wide berth and limit time under them.
Impressive wind effect along Seattle Ridge around 2,500′. 12.29.20. Photo: Beau Gehler
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
On mid-elevation slopes (1,300′ – 2,500′) we have been tracking a crust that formed on 12/1. This crust is degrading, developing a thin layer of facets, and beginning to show signs of forming a reactive weak layer in some areas, but not all. The crust sits 3-5′ below the surface and has been responsible for large avalanches trigged with explosives and a large collapse at Pete’s North. Triggering an avalanche on this layer is unlikely but could have bad consequences. Signs of instability will not likely be present and stability tests could give unreliable data. Steep unsupported slopes in the 1300′-2500′ elevation range should be considered suspect and there may be multiple tracks on the slope before it fails.
The Summit Lake region to the south of our forecast area has a thinner snowpack with faceted snow at the ground that is a concern above 2500′. This area also has the December 1st crust/facet combo below 2500′. Both these weak layers are worth keeping in mind before trying to push into bigger terrain in the Summit Lake area.
Snow pit at 2,300′ on Seattle Ridge. This is representative of the Repeat Offender slide path. No instability was found. The crust here, despite degrading and faceting, was not reacting in the pit the way some pits have been on the non-motorized side of the Pass.
Yesterday: Mostly cloudy skies were over the area. Ridgetop winds were light easterly during the day and increased (20-30mph), with gusts to 51mph, overnight. Light snowfall fell overnight adding 1-2″ over most locations, including sea level. Temperatures were in the 20’sF in the mountains and in the mid 30’sF at sea level, before cooling a few degrees overnight.
Today: A shortwave trough is moving the forecast area and bringing, cloudy skies, a bump in wind, and 1-2″ inches of additional snow today. Ridgetop winds should remain in the 15-25mph range with stronger gusts. Temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 20’sF along ridgelines and in the upper 30’s F at sea level. The rain/snow should be just above sea level (~400).
Tomorrow: For tomorrow, skies should be partly cloudy, ridgetop winds look to back off and blow in the 5-10mph range from the east and temperatures cool into the teens at the mid and upper elevations. This will mark a several day period of clear weather and high pressure that is expected to last through Saturday.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 32 | 2 | 0.1 | 81 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 31 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 31 | 1 | 0.1 | 84 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 24 | NE | 23 | 51 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 27 | SE | 9 | 22 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
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Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.