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A MODERATE avalanche danger exists in the Alpine above 2,500′ for wind slab avalanches and cornice falls. Watch for fresh or lingering wind slabs from 1-3′ thick that may be possible to trigger just off ridgelines and in cross-loaded gullies. Cornices have grown and could break off easily- they deserve a wide berth.
Turnagain Pass – Avy Chat @ Black Diamond
Tomorrow, December. 19 from 6:30pm – 8:00pm. Cost FREE!
Join CNFAIC Director/ forecaster Wendy Wagner for a discussion on early season conditions and avalanches. How the snowpack is shaping up and what types of avalanches have occurred, including those affecting summer trails.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Finally, the winds look to let up… After 11 days of sustained moderate to strong easterly ridgetop winds across our region, weather models show a slow decline beginning today. As we might expect, the snow cover has been significantly reshaped in the Alpine where it has been snowing for the past 11 days as well. Windward areas are scoured to the tundra and catchment zones have drifts over 10 feet deep. The good news is, much of the terrain we like to play on seems to still have a decent degree of snow cover.
Wind slab avalanches are the main concern today. Fresh slabs could be found from the overnight winds or in areas still seeing some wind loading today. On top on that, older wind slabs from yesterday or prior could still pose an issue in steep wind loaded terrain. What to watch for:
These are all signs a slab has been found and if the snow cracks and buckles with our weight, we’ll know it’s telling us it’s unstable. As always, before jumping onto a slope, it’s good to consider the consequences if an avalanche is triggered.
Active wind loading along Sunburst Ridge yesterday. Winds were blowing northeasterly and loading the SW side of the ridge.
Cornices: If traveling along ridgelines, give cornices a wide berth, they have grown and could be teetering on the balance. Limit exposure under them as well, especially if there is a group of people above you along the ridge.
Small natural cornice fall yesterday, also along the SW face of Sunburst. Note the larger cornices further down ridge.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The glide avalanche cycle from last week has slowed down dramatically. There are a few cracks in the Turnagain area we know of. These are good to avoid being under, two in the Tincan Trees and one just above alder line under Common Bowl on the SW face of the ridge, pictured below. You never know when cracks appear – always keep a lookout for them as they can release into an avalanche at anytime.
As we head into a clear sky period and travel further off the road into the Alpine becomes possible, keep in mind there could be some lingering funny business deeper in the snowpack in shallow snow cover areas such as Summit Lake. Various layers of facets and crusts could still remain intact at the high elevations. If this is the case, the potential exists for a larger avalanche to be triggered that breaks deeper in the snowpack.
Also of note, in a pit dug at 3,500′ on Sunburst yesterday, we found the old Nov Veteran’s Day facets over the hard basal melt-freeze crust at Turnagain. The layer didn’t show signs of reactivity here, which is good news (yet still something we are tracking). We dug in a shallow zone to find it as the layer is now buried between 3-6′ deep and even more in places.
Yesterday: Partly cloudy skies with intermittent light rain below 1,500′ and light snow above were seen region wide. Only a trace to an inch of new snow fell above the treeline. Ridgetop winds were 15-25mph with gusts nearing 50mph from an easterly direction. Temperatures cooled slightly, ridgetops are in the low 20’sF and sea level is in the mid 30’sF.
Today: Partly cloudy skies with an instability shower or two are on tap. Similar to yesterday, only an inch to a trace of snow is expected above 1,000′ in areas close to Turnagain Arm and Portage Valley. Light rain could be seen at sea level. Ridgetop winds look to slow down today to the 10-15 mph range with gusts in the 20’s. Temperatures should remain cooler with sea level in the mid-upper 30’sF and ridgelines in the low 20’sF.
Tomorrow: High pressure is headed in to Southcentral bringing a clearing trend starting tomorrow (Thursday) and extending through the weekend. Cold and sunny weather is forecast and we will be watching the northerly winds to see if they materialize into a potential outflow event.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 32 | trace | trace | 31 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 33 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 33 | 1 | 0.1 | 16 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 24 | NE | 22 | 49 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
*Seattle Ridge weather station is not reporting. We will get it back up as soon as possible.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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