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The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE above 1,000′. At the mid-elevations, glide avalanches continue to release. Avoid being under any crack forming in the snowpack as these are very unpredictable avalanches that release spontaneously. At the high elevations, new snow and strong wind over the last two days have created storm snow avalanche issues. This includes wind slabs and storm slabs (around 1 to 2 feet thick) and cornice falls, any of which could easily be triggered by a person.
*Careful snowpack evaluation is necessary for travel into the high elevation zones with dry snow.
Headed to Hatcher Pass? Don’t forget to check hpavalanche.org and their Facebook page!
Join CNFAIC Forecaster Aleph Johnston-Bloom at Blue & Gold Boardshop Monday, Dec 16th, 7:00-8:30 for a FREE evening avalanche discussion on patterns in Alaskan avalanche accidents with practical takeaways to use this season. There will also be an avalanche gear demo outside in the snow (weather permitting).
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Despite very socked in weather and poor visibility yesterday, we do know of several glide avalanches that released in the Girdwood Valley. We are very suspect many others released in the forecast area as well but just could not see them.
Glide avalanche on the lower portion of Raggedtop Mtn, south facing slope. Released around 12/12.
Yesterday’s storm is slowly moving out this morning and we should see a break in cloud cover and precipitation before another front heads in this evening. The most exciting news however… is the snow line dropped last night! Snow is falling at 1,000′ this morning and may add an inch or two before skies clear.
Turnagain Pass DOT RWIS station snow stake at 1,000′.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The glide cycle we are currently in is expected to continue today with our cooling temperatures. It may seem a bit counter intuitive, but glide cracks tend to release during cooling trends as well as warm periods. It will be interesting to see what happens today.
Glide avalanches are completely unpredictable and not triggered by people or explosives. The only way to manage this problem is to avoid, or limit, any exposure under glide cracks. These cracks look like big brown frowns- keep your eye out for them.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Snowfall in the Alpine zones yesterday added another 8 inches to a foot of new snow. This is on top of 6 – 10″ of new snow from the day before (Thursday). Strong easterly winds were associated with the snowfall and though decreasing slightly today, should still be blowing in the 15-30mph range along ridgelines from the east. This said, don’t be surprised to find wind slab avalanches up to 2 feet or more thick.
If traveling to the higher elevations in search of dry snow today be very wary of finding and triggering a wind slab avalanche. Things to be on the lookout for:
Storm slab avalanches: Areas out of the wind could harbor slab avalanches that are simply made up of the storm snow that has not bonded yet with the older snow surface. Again being aware of any red flags in areas with new snow.
Cornices: Give cornices a wide berth! They likely have grown and could be easy to knock off.
In the Summit Lake area and other shallow snowpack zones that have seen less new snow, we are concerned about weak faceted snow that sits under the new snow from the past week. This is at the upper elevations, above 2,500′, where the snow is dryer. Before the storm cycles, faceted snow existed at the base of the snowpack and other layers of facets/crusts in areas. How these layers have adjusted over the past week of stormy weather and increasing snow load is something we are watching and something to pay attention to if headed to these areas.
Yesterday: Cloudy skies and heavy rain was seen in the morning below 2,500′ with snow above. Light rain continued overnight along with cooling temperatures, which brought snow down to 1,000′ (finally!). Almost an inch of water fell at Turnagain and Girdwood over the past 24-hours, adding up to a foot of new snow above 2,500′ and around 1-2″ of snow at 1,000′ from overnight’s cooler weather. Ridgetop winds remained strong yesterday averaging 30-40mph from the east.
Today: A break in storms today should bring partly cloudy to clear skies before another front moves in this evening. Scattered snow showers may add another .2-.4 ” of rain at sea level and 2-4″ of snow from 1,000′ and above. Ridgetop winds look to decrease slightly to the 15-30 mph range from the east. Temperatures should remain on the cooler side, near 32F at 1,000′ and 25F along ridgelines.
Tomorrow: Another round of precipitation and wind will move through tomorrow. The rain/snow line is forecast to bump back up slightly to 1,500′ and possibly 2,000′. We could see an inch or so of rain at sea level with another foot or so of snow at the high elevations. Stay tuned!
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 33 | 4 | 0.9 | 21 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 33 | 1 | 0.2 | 7 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 32 | 4 | 0.75 | 13 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 24 | NE | 23 | 78 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
*Seattle Ridge weather station is down and as soon as the weather clears we will get it up and running!
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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