Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Although it has been raining down in town and into the mid-elevations up to 2,500′, the higher elevation snowpack is growing. Around 5-8″ of new snow has fallen overnight in favored areas with up to another 5″ of snow expected through today. On top of this, there is 5 – 7″ forecast for tonight. The good news is, the rain/snow line looks to lower this evening to around 1,500′ and should hover in this zone through the weekend. With limited visibility and information in the snowy regions, there is much uncertainty as to recent avalanche activity at these high elevations. What we do know however, is many mid-elevations slopes are seeing glide avalanche activity.

Several glide avalanches released yesterday in the Girdwood Valley due to the warm weather and precipitation. There are also now a few cracks opening up on mid-elevation terrain at Turnagain as well, specifically on Tincan as seen in the photo below.

Glide avalanche that released yesterday. This is on Orca mtn, which sits in the Girdwood Vally just east of the Tesoro gas station.

Cracks opening up in the Tincan Trees, viewed from the RWIS webcam at Turnagain Pass. 

Glide avalanches are expected to continue to release today. Many cracks have opened up through the region. New cracks likely formed overnight. The only way to manage this problem is to avoid or limit time under cracks. There is no way of knowing when a crack might release and these are not triggered by people.

Ridgetop easterly winds are not slowing down. They have been continuously blowing in the 20-35 mph range for two days now and are forecast to increase up to the 40’s mph today. That said, wind slab avalanches and cornice falls are expected to remain the concern on high elevation slopes. These may release naturally or be easily triggered by a person. Poor visibility will likely hamper travel to these zones, but if you do find yourself there, look for how the wind has been reshaping and depositing the snow. Avoiding any wind loaded slope or cross-loaded gully will be key. Watch for stiffer snow over softer snow, hollow feeling snow and any cracking in the snow around you, these are ways to identify a wind slab.

Storm slab avalanches – there could be slopes that accumulate up to a foot or more of new snow by this afternoon. In these areas, storm slab avalanches will be possible to trigger in areas out of the wind.

Deeper in the snowpack at the upper elevations we are tracking layers of weak faceted snow from November. How these layers have adjusted over the past week of stormy weather and increasing snow load is something we are watching. Turnagain Pass had a layer of facets over a hard crust near the ground and the Summit Lake zone had several facet/crust combinations composing the snowpack.