Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

The storm that was forecast for today, that was supposed to be similar to last Thursday’s, is not packing much of a punch so far and doesn’t look very promising. Cloudy skies, very light precipitation and moderate winds seem to be on the menu for today and aren’t expected to raise the avalanche danger. With that being said, paying attention to changing conditions will be important if precipitation rates increase or winds really bump up. If either or both of those things happen, watch for increasing slab development and signs of instability. Yet again we don’t have great surface conditions for new snow to bond with.

Persistent Slabs: You may be experiencing some message fatigue but we hope you keep tuning in. Due to the pattern of small storms, dry spells and flip flopping winds over the last two months the avalanche forecast is sounding pretty dang repetitive. Wind slab… Persistent Slab… Wind slab… Persistent slab. We keep having wind slabs develop over weak layers and transition into persistent slabs as they linger.  Today this is the issue again and there is still the concern of finding a slope where old buried weak layers (facets and buried surface hoar) are reactive under stiffer slabs due to wind-loading. There is a weak layer about a foot down that seems to be our current issue.  The natural avalanches on Raggedtop and the skier triggered slab on Tri Tip last week are unfortunately good examples of what we are talking about.  There is still a possibility a person could trigger one of these persistent slab avalanches. Be on the lookout for areas that were previously wind-loaded and those with any new wind-loading. The most suspect terrain will likely be at upper and mid elevations, especially immediately below ridgelines, in cross-loaded gullies, and below convexities.  These areas are prime slab habitat. As always, use good travel protocol, and think about terrain consequences. This type of avalanche issue might allow you to get well out on the slope before the avalanche releases and it might not be the first person that triggers the avalanche.

Loose snow avalanches: Steep slopes that have been sheltered from the wind have up to a foot of loose snow sitting on top of firm surfaces. We have seen a lot of loose snow avalanches (sluffs) since Thursday, and similar activity will be expected today. Any new snow today will add volume to places with soft snow or easily sluff off of sun crusted southerly slopes. While it is unlikely these loose snow avalanches will be big enough to bury you, they can be dangerous if they drag you into terrain traps like cliffs, trees, rocks, or gullies. If we do get rain below 500′ watch for small roller balls and wet loose avalanches.

Wind effect on the north side of Sunburst, 3.28.21. Look for signs of wind-loading today and avoid travel on steep slopes with stiff snow. 

Forecast snow totals through tomorrow afternoon. Do a little snow dance and hope we get some snow!