|Signal Word||Size (D scale)||Simple Descriptor|
|Small||1||Unlikely to bury a person|
|Large||2||Can bury a person|
|Very Large||3||Can destroy a house|
|Historic||4 & 5||Can destroy part or all of a village|
The storm that was forecast for today, that was supposed to be similar to last Thursday’s, is not packing much of a punch so far and doesn’t look very promising. Cloudy skies, very light precipitation and moderate winds seem to be on the menu for today and aren’t expected to raise the avalanche danger. With that being said, paying attention to changing conditions will be important if precipitation rates increase or winds really bump up. If either or both of those things happen, watch for increasing slab development and signs of instability. Yet again we don’t have great surface conditions for new snow to bond with.
Persistent Slabs: You may be experiencing some message fatigue but we hope you keep tuning in. Due to the pattern of small storms, dry spells and flip flopping winds over the last two months the avalanche forecast is sounding pretty dang repetitive. Wind slab… Persistent Slab… Wind slab… Persistent slab. We keep having wind slabs develop over weak layers and transition into persistent slabs as they linger. Today this is the issue again and there is still the concern of finding a slope where old buried weak layers (facets and buried surface hoar) are reactive under stiffer slabs due to wind-loading. There is a weak layer about a foot down that seems to be our current issue. The natural avalanches on Raggedtop and the skier triggered slab on Tri Tip last week are unfortunately good examples of what we are talking about. There is still a possibility a person could trigger one of these persistent slab avalanches. Be on the lookout for areas that were previously wind-loaded and those with any new wind-loading. The most suspect terrain will likely be at upper and mid elevations, especially immediately below ridgelines, in cross-loaded gullies, and below convexities. These areas are prime slab habitat. As always, use good travel protocol, and think about terrain consequences. This type of avalanche issue might allow you to get well out on the slope before the avalanche releases and it might not be the first person that triggers the avalanche.
Loose snow avalanches: Steep slopes that have been sheltered from the wind have up to a foot of loose snow sitting on top of firm surfaces. We have seen a lot of loose snow avalanches (sluffs) since Thursday, and similar activity will be expected today. Any new snow today will add volume to places with soft snow or easily sluff off of sun crusted southerly slopes. While it is unlikely these loose snow avalanches will be big enough to bury you, they can be dangerous if they drag you into terrain traps like cliffs, trees, rocks, or gullies. If we do get rain below 500′ watch for small roller balls and wet loose avalanches.
Yesterday: Skies were partly cloudy becoming overcast. Winds were light westerly and then shifted to the east in the late afternoon and increased overnight blowing 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Temperatures were in the teens and 20°Fs in the alpine and the mid 20°Fs to mid 30°Fs at lower elevations. Very light snow showers started last night with minimal accumulation. Overnight temperatures were in the high teens to high 20°Fs.
Today: Cloudy skies with light rain and snow showers. Rain/snow line is forecast to be around 500′. Temperatures will be in the high 20°Fs to mid 30°Fs at sea level and mid 20°Fs to to mid teens in the alpine. Winds will be southerly 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Cloudy skies and snow showers continue overnight with temperatures in the mid teens to mid 20°Fs. Winds will remain southerly 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20s.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy skies with a chance of snow showers. Temperatures will be in the mid 20°Fs to mid 30°Fs. Winds will be light and easterly.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
|Temp Avg (F)||Snow (in)||Water (in)||Snow Depth (in)|
|Center Ridge (1880′)||25||1||0.1||112|
|Summit Lake (1400′)||24||trace||trace||48|
|Alyeska Mid (1700′)||25||1||0.02||117|
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
|Temp Avg (F)||Wind Dir||Wind Avg (mph)||Wind Gust (mph)|
|Seattle Ridge (2400′)||19||WNW-SE*||7||20|
*Wind shift in the late afternoon yesterday.
|12/08/22||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum: Super Bowl/PMS Bowl||Schauer/ Wadsworth Forecaster|
|12/07/22||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan||John Sykes|
|12/07/22||Turnagain||Observation: Eddies skintrack||Iris Neary|
|12/06/22||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle Ridge- Main Bowl||Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster|
|12/04/22||Turnagain||Observation: Silvertip||Schauer/ Cullen Forecaster|
|12/04/22||Turnagain||Observation: Kickstep Glacier||Moderow / Wadsworth|
|12/03/22||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle Ridge||AS/ AR/MS/ME Forecaster|
|12/03/22||Turnagain||Observation: Seattle Ridge||Kakiko Ramos-Leon|
|12/03/22||Turnagain||Observation: Superbowl||Peter Wadsworth|
|12/02/22||Turnagain||Avalanche: Magnum/Cornbiscuit||John Sykes Forecaster|
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: email@example.com
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.