Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE at all elevations but could rise to CONSIDERABLE depending on how much snow falls throughout the day. If this storm produces, triggering storm slabs will be likely. This storm is forecast to favor Girdwood. In addition, it is still possible to trigger an avalanche on weak layers of snow buried 1-3’ deep. The most likely places to trigger this type of avalanche will be on steep slopes with old hard wind affected snow. New snow could make it more challenging to identify where these stiff slabs are lingering. Assess the snowpack as you travel, identify areas of concern and evaluate terrain consequences.
Heading to Hatcher Pass? Be sure to check the Thursday Conditions Summary at hpavalanche.org.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Snow started falling this morning and will continue to fall for most of the day today (fingers crossed we avoid the “R” word). This weather pattern is already favoring Girdwood over Turnagain. Five inches have already fallen in Girdwood with only an inch registering on the Center Ridge SNOTEL. An additional 4-7″ is forecast to fall today. The avalanche danger will be really dependent on how much snow we get and how well it bonds to existing snow surfaces. The winds aren’t supposed to be strong but if they kick up a bit they could add to the slab building in the Alpine. Paying attention to changing conditions will be crucial today. If this storm really produces, watch for storm slabs to form. Southerly slopes have a sun crust, northerly protected slopes have loose faceted snow and wind affected terrain has a hard wind crust. New snow is not expected to bond well to any of these surfaces. The temperatures will also rise, potentially creating a bit of an ‘upside down’ storm situation with heavier snow falling on lighter snow. The other factor to consider is that triggering a storm slab avalanche could overload our layers of lurking buried weak snow and produce a larger avalanche (more in Problem 2).
The rain/snowline may rise to around 500′. Rain on snow may produce small roller balls and mini wet loose avalanches.
Dry loose snow avalanches: Steep slopes that have been sheltered from the wind have up to a foot of loose snow sitting on top of firm surfaces. New snow will add volume to this set-up. It will be easy to trigger dry loose avalanches (sluffs), and they could pickup enough speed to carry a person. While it is unlikely they will be big enough to bury you, they can be dangerous if they drag you into terrain traps like cliffs, trees, rocks, or gullies.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Today’s storm will cover up the existing snow surfaces, making it a bit more challenging to figure out where the old wind affected snow is. It could will also add more load and potentially create more of a slab. Our concern continues to be finding a spot where there is a slab over the layers of buried weak snow in the upper 1-3′ of the snowpack. This is where we think it is still possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche. The most recent human triggered avalanches were on steep slopes with hard wind affected snow sitting on top of facets and/or surface hoar. These buried layers of weak snow seem to be widespread across the forecast area. The part that remains variable is the character of the snow resting on top of the weak snow. Figuring out whether or not there is a slab is key to safe travel in steep terrain. Be on the lookout for indications of previous wind-loading under the new snow, including stiff snow on or a hollow, ‘punchy’ feeling slab. The most suspect terrain will likely be at upper elevations, especially immediately below ridgelines, in cross-loaded gullies, and below convexities. As always, watch for signs of instability, use good travel protocol, and think about terrain consequences. This type of avalanche issue might allow you to get well out on to the slope before the avalanche releases and it might not be the first person that triggers the avalanche.
Buried surface hoar sitting under hard wind affected snow just off the ridgeline on the north side of Tincan. 3.24.21.
Another layer of buried surface hoar 2′ down in a snow pit on the north side of Tincan, 3.24.21. The results of a Propagation Saw Test indicated that there is still a possibility of triggering an avalanche on this layer.
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Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
We’ve heard reports of some glide cracks and failure within the advisory area. Glide avalanche failure is difficult to predict. Stay out from underneath them!
Yesterday: Skies were partly cloudy becoming overcast in the afternoon. Winds were mostly light and variable. Temperatures were in the 20°Fs to mid 30°Fs. A few valley weather stations saw highs into 40°Fs. Overnight skies were cloudy with light snow beginning around 2 am. Winds remained light and variable with temperatures in the 20°Fs.
Today: Skies will be cloudy with snow likely throughout the day, with up to a foot of snow expected. Rain/snow line is forecast to rise to 500′. Winds will be easterly 5-15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Temperatures will be in the 20°Fs at upper elevations and 30°Fs near sea level. Clouds will decrease overnight and winds will shift to the west. Temperatures will be in the mid teens to mid 20°Fs.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the mid 20°Fs to mid 30°Fs. Winds will be northwesterly 5-15 mph. Clouds move in again overnight and linger through Saturday with some partly sunny skies in the forecast for Sunday. There is talk of a more active pattern next week but we shall see if that pans out.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 24 | 1 | 0.1 | 111 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 26 | 1 | 0.1 | 46 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 26 | 5 | 0.2 | 114 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 17 | W | 8 | 31 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 21 | var | 4 | 12 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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