Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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Warm and wet weather moving in will keep the avalanche danger MODERATE for triggering a wet loose avalanche below 2,500′. Above this, triggering a lingering wind slab is still possible. Additionally, give cornices a wide berth.
SUMMIT LAKE: This area harbors a shallower snowpack with weak snow in the mid and base of the pack. Triggering a larger slab is possible and extra caution is advised.
PORTAGE VALLEY/Byron Glacier Trail: It’s that time of year to avoid avalanche runout zones along summer trails. Springtime avalanches can hit areas such as the Byron Glacier ice caves.
***Roof Avalanches: Heads up. Roofs are still shedding remaining snow.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Clouds have moved in this morning along with warm temperatures and a shot for a little snow. This quick hitting system will impact Anchorage and Hatcher Pass more than Turnagain, yet we should see some rain mixing with snow in Girdwood and possibly an inch of snow at 1,000′ on Turnagain Pass. If we’re lucky, we’ll see a couple inches at the high elevations. Although the new snow snow/rain amounts are too small (0.1″ water) to add weight to the snowpack, it will be the temperatures that contribute to avalanche danger today.
As temperatures remain warm and above freezing from around 2,500′ and below, we can expect the surface crusts to be present, but on the softer side this morning. Daytime heating is likely to soften them more and once your snowmachine/skis/splitboard starts punching deep into the snowpack, it’s time to stay off steep slopes. This is when wet loose avalanches will become possible to trigger. These wet sluffs could start quite small, with a person, a roller ball or piece of snow falling from a tree or rocky cliff. If conditions are right, they can entrain enough snow to cause a larger avalanche than expected. This is an easy problem to see if we make sure to watch for it.
A small wet loose avalanche on Seattle Ridge that was triggered by a piece of snow falling off a tree and onto a steep portion of the slope yesterday.
Wet Slabs: As we head into spring, keep in mind that the snowpack is warming as a whole. At elevations below 2,500′ areas are already seeing wet/moist snow throughout the pack. Once this occurs, we can start seeing wet slab avalanches. The photo below is from the Summit Lake area and shows a large collapse in weak faceted snow that propagated far uphill yesterday. If this slope was steep enough to slide a wet slab avalanche would have resulted. This issue is more likely where the snowpack is shallow, such as Summit Lake.
A collapse in weak faceted snow triggered by a skier in the Summit Lake area yesterday (elevation 1,800′). Note how the snowpack dropped a few inches and the crack can be seen extending far upslope. This was in the Treeline band below 2,500′. 3.24.20. Photo: Paul Wunnicke
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Watch for lingering stiff wind slabs on steep slopes in the Alpine. These are from the strong winds on Sunday and Monday. These slabs could be sitting on buried surface hoar or older sun crust and may still be possible to trigger. Warm temperatures can also increase the likelihood of triggering.
In shallow snowpack zones, triggering a larger slab that breaks in weak snow in the mid and base of the snowpack is still a concern. This is at the higher elevations where drier snow exists. The recent warm weather is changing the character of the slab on top, which can increase the chance a person can initiate a failure in the weak facets below and create an avalanche. Areas with a shallow snowpack are on the south end of Turnagain Pass to Summit Lake.
A natural avalanche on the southwest facing couloir of Templeton in the Summit Lake area. Note how the avalanche ‘stepped down’ into deeper weak layers. This occurred during the Sunday/Monday outflow wind event. Photo taken 3.24.20 by Paul Wunnicke.
Yesterday: Mostly sunny skies with high clouds were over the region. Ridgetop winds were light and westerly (5-10mph). Temperatures rose to 30°F at 4,000′ and into the mid 40’s°F at sea level.
Today: Cloudy skies are over the region as a warm weather system moves through. Light snowfall should add around an inch of snow above 1,000′ today and a rain/snow mix below that could transition to mostly rain at sea level. Ridgetop winds are shifting more southerly this morning and should be in the 5-15 mph range from the southwest before swinging back northwesterly tonight bringing drier air into the area. Temperatures are forecast to be near 30°F along the ridgelines and 40°F at sea level.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny skies with light northwesterly winds are forecast tomorrow as the moist weather moves out tonight. Another round of precipitation and snowfall for areas above 1000′ heads in for Friday and into the weekend. Stay tuned.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 38 | 0 | 0 | 66 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 39 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 35 | 0 | 0 | 75 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 30 | W | 9 | 21 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 33 | NW | 3 | 8 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
01/19/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Johnston-Bloom Forecaster |
01/18/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Obs. | A Schauer Forecaster |
01/16/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan Trees | A Schauer Forecaster |
01/15/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | Schauer/ Wunnicke Forecaster |
01/13/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Johnston-Bloom / Moderow Forecaster |
01/13/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Center Ridge Meadows | Alaska Avalanche School Rec Level 1 Roberts |
01/12/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge/Center Ridge | A Schauer Forecaster |
01/11/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Trees | Schauer/ Roberts Forecaster |
01/10/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Center Ridge Meadows | Alaska Avalanche School Pro 1 Course Latosuo |
01/10/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan trees | Anonymous |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
---|---|---|
Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.