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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE today. With an early morning wind shift from east to west/northwest and snow available for transport, watch for small newly formed wind slabs in the upper elevation terrain and in exposed areas in the trees. Additionally, triggering a slab avalanche that fails on weak snow that is buried between 1-3′ feet deep is still possible at all elevations. Keep in mind these slabs may be triggered remotely. Assess the snowpack as you travel, identify areas of concern and evaluate terrain consequences.
LOST LAKE/SNUG/SEWARD: The northwest winds are forecast to be stronger in these areas. Watch for blowing snow and pay attention to terrain selection.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Yesterday winds were easterly and were strong enough to move snow around in wind exposed terrain. Observers in Girdwood reported shooting cracks and small skier triggered wind slabs. This morning winds are shifting to the west and light snow is falling. Winds today will likely move snow around and will continue form shallow wind slabs. Because of the change in wind direction these new slabs could be on all aspects. Pay attention to blowing snow and recent loading. Fresh wind slabs will feel stiffer than snow that has been sheltered, and may appear as a smooth, rounded pillow. Look for cracking and be suspect of the terrain features that commonly harbor fresh wind slabs– just below ridgelines, below convexities, or in cross-loaded gullies. Remember triggering a shallow wind slab avalanche may step down to the layer of buried weak snow (more info in Problem 2) and cause a larger, more dangerous avalanche.
Sluffs: Steep slopes that have been sheltered from the wind have loose snow sitting on top of firm surfaces. It will be easy to trigger dry loose avalanches today, and they can pick up enough volume and speed to carry a person. While it is unlikely they will be big enough to bury you, they can be dangerous if they drag you into terrain traps like cliffs, trees, rocks, or gullies.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
While small fresh wind slabs may be easy to trigger today, triggering a larger avalanche the fails on buried weak snow is still possible as well. Last Wednesday’s snow is sitting on a weak layer of facets and/or surface hoar as well as a slick sun crust on steep southerly slopes. Don’t forget that persistent weak layers need more time to heal than a typical wind or storm slab. This facet/surface hoar layer is buried anywhere from 6″ to 3′ deep and will see additional loading today. In some terrain it is sitting under stiff wind affected snow (due to the NW wind event Thursday and Friday). Where the weak snow is associated with a sun crust, in steep southerly terrain, appears to be particularly suspect. We saw human triggered avalanches on this set-up and some avalanches were triggered remotely. This means it is possible to trigger an avalanche from below, to the side of, or above steep terrain, and requires an additional level of awareness while traveling in the mountains.
Andrew’s list from Saturday of what to keep in mind works well for those heading out today.
Just like we saw last month, these persistent weak layers will need some time to gain enough strength to be trusted. For now, the safe bet is to recognize the increased hazard and choose terrain carefully.
Yesterday: Skies were cloudy with very light snow showers in the afternoon ending in the evening. Upper elevation temperatures were in the single digits to mid teens and it was in the upper 20°Fs at sea level. Winds were easterly 5-15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Overnight temperatures were in the low teens to low 20°Fs.
Today: Very light snow showers resumed early this morning and are forecast to continue throughout the day, ending in the early afternoon/evening. Winds are shifting to the west/northwest this morning and will blow 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Temperatures will be in the teens to high 20°Fs. Overnight skies will be mostly cloudy with light west winds and temperatures in the teens to mid 20°Fs.
Tomorrow: Skies will be partly cloudy with light northwest winds and temperatures in the teens to mid 20°Fs. Mostly sunny skies are in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, possibly continuing through the weekend.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 21* | trace* | trace* | 114* |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 22* | trace* | trace* | 45* |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 19 | 2 | 0.08 | 118 |
*The SNOTEL sites stopped reporting at 9 pm last night.
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 10 | NE | 10 | 32 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 13 | SE | 8 | 19 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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